MILANO – 3:40 pm. The reassurances of Federal Reserve and ECB on the temporary nature of inflation and on the maintenance – especially in the Eurotower – of an expansionary monetary policy; there economic growth that, despite the concerns about the Delta variant, it is confirmed to be sustained in the US (+ 6.4% of GDP confirmed in the first quarter) and accelerating in the Eurozone (as S&P certified yesterday); a bipartisan agreement reached in the United States that brings us closer the Biden infrastructure plan nearly 600 billion, to which the Democratic side of Congress aims to support other interventions “on human infrastructure”. Numbers to support the growth that is also being seen in American prices. In the US, in fact, the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) figure grew by 0.4% compared to the previous month, while compared to a year earlier it increased by 3.9%. Growth was also sustained by “core” inflation which rose by 0.5%, but slightly less than expected for + 0.6%.
Markets drew optimism from this news set and in fact last night Wall Street hit new records with S&P (+ 0.58%) and Nasdaq (+ 0.69%). The MSCI index that summarizes the performance of global equities, Bloomberg says, is geared for the best week since April. After some swings in futures, Wall Street opened positively with the Dow Jones (+ 0.5%) continuing its run. European trade weakened during the session: in the afternoon, Frankfurt is down by 0.1%, Milano is unchanged, Paris drops by 0.2% e London salt by 0.35%.
From Germany still improve the confidence indicators: yesterday it was the Ifo, the one that indicates business confidence, to strengthen. Today it’s up to consumer confidence: the Gfk index for the month of July rose sharply to -0.3 points, against -6.9 points the previous month. “We are moving further and further away from the lockdown,” the economists comment. Also noteworthy is the ten-year top of the index dedicated to exporters only.
Another sign of a return to normal came last night from Federal Reserve which promoted the major US banks in the sector stress tests: Institutions can absorb a total of 474 billion dollars of forgiveness in a scenario of a global recession and with American unemployment at 10.75%. Even in this severe scenario, the capital ratios are double the minimum requirements. As a result, the US Central Bank will raise the limits on share buybacks and dividends it had put in place at the start of the coronavirus pandemic.
On the currency market, theeuro opens slightly above $ 1.19. The European currency changes hands at 1.1939 dollars and 132.33 yen. Dollar / yen slows to 110.84. The spread between BTP and Bund in mid-morning it rises to 107 points, compared to 105 at the start of the session. The yield of the Italian 10-year rises to 0.899%.
The prices of the Petroleum open buildings, driven by the good prospects of the summer season, in the name of reopening. Meanwhile, Opec + is preparing for its meeting scheduled for Thursday 1 July with the intention of further increasing the offer. On the Asian markets, futures on Light crude Wti advance by one cent to 73.31 dollars and those on Brent by one cent to 75.57 dollars a barrel
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