The opinion of the heads of business are very decided according to the branches, we learn from a survey of the BCV. But, given the scale of the crisis, the positive view is more widespread than expected.
Nearly half of the approximately 536 SMES in vaud surveyed by the central bank expect a decrease of their turnover during the twelve months to come. In view of the magnitude of the crisis caused by the pandemic Covid-19, which should result according to economists for a decline of more than 5% of vaud’s GDP in 2020, this impact is hardly surprising. What is more, it is only 4 small and medium-sized companies in the canton of vaud in 10 expect that their turnover remains stable in the coming year, and more than 11%, provide a progression of this one! A small majority express their optimism about the prospects for the recovery despite concerns expressed repeatedly by the health authorities of a second or even a third wave of contamination in the course of the next few months.
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This state of mind is not without influence on employment, since less than a fifth of companies surveyed expect to decrease their workforce in the next twelve months. The employees most affected are small companies of 10 to 49 jobs. 12% of the interviewees still think hire staff.
The department of Studies and analysis of Banque Cantonale Vaudoise has carried out this survey during the second half of the month of may after the announcement of the measures déconfinement gradual and lifted security restrictions. With a margin of error of nearly 4%, he believes it is representative of the economic situation of SMES and the morale of their leaders.
Of course, from one sector to the other the feeling is very different and one is not surprised to read in the analysis of the BCV that “the pessimism is particularly present in the accommodation and food as well as in the arts and recreational activities”. However, it has much less of a concern in the construction and real estate activities, retail trade, computer science, or health. On the side of the optimists rather larger SMES, and, more surprisingly, the self-employed. Without a doubt, some support measures have been effective.
A large majority do not think to change its operational mode to a resumption of activity. Part even think to grow (21%). Less than a third-party account, by contrast, reduce the scope of its activity. While a few executives of companies think about the stop and less than 3% are considering a sale or transfer of their business.
Among the benefits of this economic period is very special, as we all know, the acceleration of the digitalization of businesses and the implementation of telework has been spectacular. The survey of the BCV highlights this transformation of the economy. For instance, it shows that “the number of companies with their own online store or selling via a different platform (market place) has almost doubled. While the number of companies using videoconferencing, it has tripled.” The survey finally reveals another interesting element for the future: more than 70% of the companies feel satisfied with the productivity of teleworking.
Published today in 06h41