The COVID-19 subvariant estimated by New York State health officials to be substantially more contagious than the first offspring of the potent Omicron strain now accounts for up to 79.5% of all viruses circulating in the New York-encompassing region, according to the most recent data released Tuesday by the CDC.
The prevalence of BA.2.12.1, which health officials say appears to be at least 25% more transmissible than BA.2 (which is said to be 30% more contagious than its predecessor, Omicron), has increased in the New York region, as categorized by the agency, at a much faster rate than nationally for at least the past month, the most recent weekly update shows.
The CDC puts it at 73.1% (with a range of 65.7% to 79.5%) of COVID cases in the New York region, which for their purposes also includes New Jersey, Puerto Rico, and the British Virgin Islands, though says that the proportion of cases of BA.2.12. could be older.
This subvariant has been the dominant strain at the local level since the beginning of May, while the first Omicron variant, BA.2., has maintained its national dominance in recent weeks (50.9% of cases compared to 47.5% for BA.2.12). .one).
However, given the latest trends, BA.2.12.1 should assert its dominance in the United States before the end of this month.
While there is no scientific evidence to date linking BA.2.12.1 to more severe COVID-related illness or reduced vaccine efficacy at this point, the increased transmissibility seems clear.
New York state, for example, represents more than a third of US counties currently considered high risk for community-level COVID spread by the CDC. Three-quarters of the state’s 62 counties meet the threshold for that same risk level, the highest of the federal agency’s three levels. Most others in the state are at medium risk.
With Tuesday’s CDC update pending, there is only one New York county that the agency still considers low risk for community spread of COVID: The Bronx.
It is the county with the second-lowest complete vaccination rate of the five and has reported the 10th-highest number of COVID deaths and the 20th-most cases since the pandemic began, Johns Hopkins research shows, so as of yet now has defied some of the transmission trends affecting the rest of the state it’s not exactly clear. Doesn’t seem to be a test: the Mott Haven/Port Morris zip code has the highest average testing rate in the city now.
It is highly unlikely that the Bronx is somehow immune to the intensely infectious Omicron subvariant that is fueling COVID rates in the other four boroughs. And with the city’s latest COVID update putting the Bronx at a new case rate above 200 cases per 100,000 residents, that last green spot on the CDC map should be gone by nightfall.
The New York City Department of Health’s variant tracker does not explicitly break out the BA.2.12.1 subvariant, but it does indicate that the subvariants linked to BA.2 represent the overwhelming number of cases over the past month and a half or so less. And COVID positivity rates have been increasing in line with the increased transmissibility associated with them.
New York City entered a “high” COVID alert phase on Tuesday. This is what that means.
Many more BA.2.12.1 infections may go unreported. The proportion of positive COVID samples genomically sequenced to isolate variants is a fraction of total confirmed cases. The city completed that extensive work for 10% of the samples tested in the last weekly data period. The State has sequenced less cumulatively (3.67%, according to the CDC).
In central New York, which was the first of 10 in the state to experience a spike in cases linked to the Omicron subvariant, BA.2.12.1 was first detected in February and increased to 77% of sequences in april. The subvariant also accounted for more than half of the sequences in the Finger Lakes region and more than 25% of the samples sequenced in the State Capital, Mohawk Valley, and Southern Tier regions as of April 20.
All five regions have a higher than state average hospitalization rate per 100,000 residents. Finger Lakes reports the highest rate on that metric: 30.14, which is nearly triple the statewide rolling rate of 12.18. Those five regions have also seen slower vaccination rates compared to southern New York state.
While hospitalization rates have increased even in areas with higher vaccination rates, and are slowly increasing among fully vaccinated people, the overall prevalence of hospitalizations for COVID remains extremely low. A good chunk of admissions labeled COVID-19 also involve people who weren’t admitted for that reason in the first place.
More than half of people hospitalized with COVID statewide (52.5%) did not have the diagnosis listed as a reason for admission, according to state data. That means the infection may not even have been detected if nothing else warrants hospitalization.
While much is still unknown, scientifically, about BA.2.12.1 at this time, health officials and experts are paying close attention to the numbers. In the meantime, they advise New Yorkers to take the same precautions and protective efforts, like vaccinations and boosters, that have helped fight the pandemic at every stage.
Governor Kathy Hochul tried to underscore the point in her latest COVID update.
“The best way to prevent serious illness and hospitalizations from COVID-19 is to get fully vaccinated and stay up to date on your booster doses,” the Democrat said. “We need more New Yorkers to use this important tool so we can continue to protect our loved ones from COVID-19 and move forward safely during this pandemic.”
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