Posted on Apr 9, 2020, 2:25 p.m.Updated on Apr 9, 2020 at 4:20 p.m.
INSEE persists and signs. The “dormant” part of the French economy to stem the epidemic of coronavirus leads to a 36% drop in economic activity in France. Each month of confinement reduces the annual GDP by 3 points. The scale of the 2008-2009 crisis “Was less” than that of today, estimate the economists of the Institute in a note of conjuncture presented this Thursday.
Sudden movements in consumption
One of the areas most upset by this hibernation is consumption. Using anonymized bank card data, INSEE observes brutal movements. On Monday March 16, 2020, the day of the confinement announcement by Emmanuel Macron, overall household consumption jumped 40%. Two days later, however, total consumption by the French dropped sharply. It was halved and then stabilized at this level, with households having limited possibilities to consume with the confinement and closure of non-food businesses, bars and restaurants.
The rush on pasta, rice and flour is confirmed. Food spending more than tripled on March 16. They then fell to reach a new peak a week later. In early April, they were down almost 35%. The French seem relatively disciplined. In any case, they go shopping less often. The number of transactions made was 27% lower than last year during the week of March 23. “On the other hand, the average baskets remain much higher than those of last year (+ 48%)”, notes INSEE.
Lower spending on the Internet
Same pattern for fuel purchases. They increased by 40% on March 16, the French having stockpiled, as for food products. The day after, the drop reached 70%.
In clothing and footwear, households stocked less and, since physical stores were closed, purchases collapsed from the start of the 90% containment. In general, spending in stores has dropped by 60% since confinement. Those on the Internet also fell by 20%.
French consumption drops more than in other countries
Do the behaviors of the French differ from those of the inhabitants of other countries in the face of the epidemic? Answering this question is obviously very complicated and INSEE uses so-called “high frequency” data, that is to say data from satellites, the Internet or collected by different organizations and companies.
Thus, the French move less than other Europeans. In the last five working days in France, the traffic congestion index was 62% below the 2019 average, compared to a drop of 53% in Italy and 31% in Germany. The French take the plane less than the others. Between March 26 and April 2, 94% of flights were canceled on average every day at the three largest French airports, compared to 78% across the Rhine and only 20% in Italy.
Electricity consumption has decreased less in France than in Italy. On average over the last seven days of March, electricity consumption on the other side of the Alps was a quarter lower than the average consumption in March 2019, compared to 12% on this side. But in Germany, the decline reached only 7%. We already knew that the French stopped working more with the onset of the epidemic than other Europeans. They also seem to be spending more.
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>>> France facing the coronavirus epidemic. What were the different stages of the alert? What is the day-to-day epidemiological situation? What measures have the government decided to limit the spread of the pandemic? To support the economy? Answers here in the special “Echoes” file.
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