Boris Johnson is scheduled to visit Northern Ireland today to try to quell a crisis for which he is primarily responsible. The Republicans of Sinn Féin remained in the elections on the 5th ahead of the main unionist formation, the DUP, although unionism as a whole remains in the majority. The DUP blames its misfortune on the Northern Ireland Protocol, which Johnson signed with the EU to carry out his long-awaited Brexit, and has adopted a position of blackmail, by refusing to allow the autonomous institutions to start operating until London unilaterally scraps the agreement that it closed with Brussels. Johnson has a problem, and again resorts to shell maneuvers.
This same Tuesday, the British Foreign Minister, Liz Truss, is ready to start the parliamentary procedures to approve a law unilaterally repealing essential parts of the Irish Protocol. Truss assures that the problem has become a matter of national security. He further accuses the EU of little flexibility and lack of pragmatism. It is not true, and the British minister knows it. The community negotiator, Maros Sefcovic, has visited the area to hear first-hand the concerns of businessmen, politicians from both sides and citizens. And he has offered practical solutions to alleviate trade and customs frictions unforeseen events, especially in trade originating in Great Britain whose final destination is Northern Ireland.
The parliamentary process of this new law that defies protocol can last up to a year. Johnson would manage to give the unionists an image of toughness, and add, again, with a certain dose of childishness, a weapon of pressure in his negotiations with the EU. Brussels is not going to fall into a trap that no longer deceives anyone. And its member countries, as Sefcovic reminded Truss last week, will stand firm and with one voice on this issue. The next step, if Johnson decides to resort to blackmail, will be to revive preparations for legal action and show him clearly what would be the consequences of an irresponsible move that violates international law.
Among the proposals put forward by London there are some measures that can be considered, others that are voluntarism and some that do not even deserve to be debated. But they are the sign that, deep down, Downing Street is terrified of unleashing a trade war with the EU. The Protocol integrated Northern Ireland into the Community internal market and established customs controls in the Irish Sea to prevent a new border from rekindling tensions and as a reminder that the island is still divided. In that hornet’s nest that took so many years and effort to calm down, making one party happy almost always means feeding the mistrust of the other. Brussels must also heed these signals. It will be this last show of negotiating will that will help to finally clarify whether Johnson is sincere in his desire to seek a solution or if he once again uses Brexit and its consequences as a smoke screen to flee from his own political problems.
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