/Pogled.info/ Zornitsa Ilieva on China’s economic chances today.
Report presented at the Discussion “Sharing the New Economic Chances from China”, organized by the China Media Group /KMG/ and Pogled.info.
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Recently, a number of Western analysts of global processes have claimed that in 2024 the world will face serious challenges for its security. But they emphasize that the combination is between socio-economic and foreign policy challenges. Most countries will be affected, including China. There is no way not to engage the attention of the relevant authorities, including in Beijing. There are simply growing concerns about the expansion of hot conflicts in certain regions. In such a situation, complex international relations threaten global security. In this regard, serious commentators in the Anglo-Saxon world are talking about China’s economic slowdown, which has been an alarming signal for the world economy. Because it definitely relies on China’s 1.5 billion population to stimulate their own countries’ development. Which is not to say that problems for China at this stage are the increase in youth unemployment, up to 21%, the return of graduating students to their villages, which meant the loss of highly paid skills that would inevitably atrophy, as well as the availability of a severe crisis in the real estate sector. It is estimated that real estate is ¼ of China’s GDP, which in the event of a collapse could lead to a domino effect on the financial system and the economy as a whole.
It is debatable whether the real estate sector can lead to such crises, but there is no doubt that there are problems. At least it has an impact on citizens’ savings, and these are local fundraising items. As they say, these are symptoms of a runny nose, which sometimes turns into a serious illness. And in this interconnected world, it also guarantees international contagion. That’s where the pain is. Don’t let the world economy drag down. According to the latest figures, China holds 19% of the world’s GDP, while the US has 15%. Kind of like China and the US have an inordinate share of the world’s GDP, and if either country weakens, there will be a global recession. That is why there are warnings that China’s large share of economic output creates a situation where a spiraling cascade in international supply chains centered in China could trigger a global spike in inflation. Fear has big eyes…