On Thursday morning, one euro cost over PLN 4.62 – the highest figure this year. The US dollar is also becoming more and more expensive. According to Przemysław Kwiecień, the chief economist of XTB, a central bank politician, the situation with vaccinations and numerous lockdowns in Europe has an impact on the behavior of currencies.
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– Movements in the zloty are considerable, it loses about 1 percent to the dollar. A little less for the franc and euro. I do not know anything about the NBP intervention, but the monetary policy of the central bank is not in favor of the zloty. The NBP suggests that it will maintain the current monetary policy and this does not help the currency – Kwiecień emphasized in an interview with TVN24 Biznes.
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As he added, the zloty is currently at the level from last year, when “we had global panic”. In his opinion, under such conditions, there is no need to undertake any actions that could weaken the Polish currency.
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According to the expert, the slow vaccination rate – lower than in Great Britain or the USA – has a significant impact on the situation of continental European currencies. As April explained, this factor may be important for analysts and be a predictor of when economies will begin to open up.
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On Thursday, around 11.30 for one euro you had to pay just over PLN 4.62, for the American dollar – PLN 3.87, the Swiss franc – PLN 4.18, and the British pound – PLN 5.41.
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“We have negative factors on all sides”
On Wednesday Bartosz Sawicki drew attention on TVN24 BiSthat “we have negative factors on all sides.” – Because on the one hand, it is a global situation unfavorable to emerging markets, i.e. those treasury bonds sold off with the greatest force in eight years. On the other hand, the situation in the region, where the third wave of the pandemic is unfortunately taking a tragic toll – he explained.
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– In addition, local factors, i.e. the National Bank of Poland on the one hand, which today clearly showed that it is the most mild-minded central bank in the region and the approaching judgment on Swiss franc loans The analyst explained.
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In the opinion of Sawicki, “the next months for the Polish currency will be better, because the fundamentals are still good” – But these foundations are currently completely obscured by temporary, but very negative factors that do not allow investors to look at the zloty more positively – he stressed.
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Economist of BNP Paribas Wojciech Stępień in an interview with PAP noted that Wednesday “Information about new restrictions did not trigger any special reaction in the zloty.” – Earlier in the morning, we could see a weakening, where technical aspects could be more important, such as breaking the psychological level of PLN 4.60 per euro. On the one hand, the 3-week lockdown may to some extent translate into economic growth, but in a broader context, the ending quarter and the next one will still show an improvement, Stępień said.
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According to the economist, the EUR / PLN rate may “test or even break the highs from the end of December around 4.64”.
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“Additional Factor Influencing Inflation”
In mid-December last year, the NBP intervened in the currency market. It was the first such intervention since April 9, 2010. – The purpose of the interventions launched in December was to limit the pressure on the appreciation of the zloty and to strengthen the impact of the loosening of the NBP monetary policy on the economy that we have achieved – explained Adam Glapiński, president of the central bank at the beginning of February.
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Earlier, the head of the NBP said that the fact that the situation of Polish exporters is good does not mean that it cannot worsen. – We were in danger of something like that, our intervention was aimed at preventing a rapid process of zloty appreciation and the goal was achieved – said Glapiński. He added that the actions of the central bank were dictated by the effects of the pandemic shock.
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In the opinion of the economic journalist Kazimierz Krupa, however, the weakening of the zloty may be “an additional factor influencing inflation”.
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– Of course, in the short term, as you know, Poland is exporting and this export is an important factor in our GDP growth and this growth will be, because exporting enterprises will actually have higher profits. Import is also important for every Pole – he pointed out in an interview with TVN24 BiS.
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photo-source">Main photo source: Shuttertock
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