[The Epoch Times, 4 ottobre 2022]Just aRussiaPresidentPut inpublic notice of annexationUkrainePutin sent a message to NATO before the four areas occupied by Russianuclear threatlet’s say onceRussiaThe territories are threatened and all means will be used to counterattack, this is never intimidation. In explaining Putin’s speech, Medvedev, vice president of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, made it clear that the Russian military will use any weapon, including strategic nuclear weapons, to protect the territory of the newly united Russia.
This is what Russia has issued again from the Russian-Ukrainian war.nuclear threat. The last time was shortly after the outbreak of the war,Put inAfter voicing “illegal” on February 27 about a series of sanctions against Russian banks, senior officials, high-techs, etc. introduced by the United States and Europe, the Defense Minister and Chief of Staff General were ordered to put the Russian Army Deterrence Forces on combat alert. According to the Russian defense ministry, the deterrent “is designed to discourage aggression against Russia and its allies and defeat the aggressor, even in a war with nuclear weapons”.
The Russian nuclear threat clearly reflects its defeat on the battlefield of conventional weapons. The latest battle situation is that Lehman, an important transport hub and strategic military position in the Donbas region, was recaptured by the Ukrainian army on 1 October and the Russian army was hastily evacuated. According to the current style of the Ukrainian army, coupled with the support of the United States and Europe, the Russian army was unable to recover on the battlefield. At this time it was a dilemma for Russia, because the nuclear threat issued obviously did not work, nor did it stop the advance of the Ukrainian army and the support of the US and Europe, wouldn’t it be a shame if that were the case? t use nuclear weapons?
Judging by normal thinking, nuclear weapons should never be used, because everyone knows the consequences. In a nuclear war, neither side wins. In short, if Russia and NATO both drop nuclear bombs on each other, causing enormous losses and serious pollution of the environment, even if the war is won, the future will not be easy. That is why no one in the world today dares to use nuclear weapons lightly.
But war can also drive people crazy. DW reports, citing experts, that if these threats become reality, smaller tactical nuclear weapons, such as the Iskander short-range ballistic missile, could be used.
Faced with Putin’s two nuclear threats, on the one hand the United States has issued a warning to Moscow and, at the same time, has strengthened the monitoring of the Russian nuclear arsenal. White House National Security Advisor Sullivan recently said Putin’s threat is “a deadly matter that we must take seriously.” He revealed that the Biden administration “privately communicated directly to the Kremlin regarding nuclear weapons, any use of nuclear weapons would have disastrous consequences for Russia, the United States and our allies will respond decisively, and we have made it clear and specific. this will mean. “
As early as 2020, U.S. Deputy Undersecretary of Defense Trachtenberg said in a speech that the U.S. Department of Defense has taken steps to demonstrate commitment to allies and partners by strengthening nuclear deterrence, such as budgeting for the defense of 2020 There is $ 25 billion to modernize the nuclear triad, share nuclear strategy and nuclear deployment capabilities with NATO partners, and advance US nuclear weapons in Europe.
According to Politico, five current and former US officials, including a source in the Biden administration with knowledge of Russia’s nuclear arsenal, said the US is increasingly monitoring any potential Russian moves. The US government is using its superiority in air, space and cyberspace to track Russian military communications or operations.
Deutsche Welle recently reported that preparations for a nuclear attack would be obvious, citing Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research in Geneva. That is, any unusual activity in the 47 nuclear storage sites under constant surveillance by military intelligence and surveillance satellites of the United States and other countries will be monitored. Because non-strategic or tactical nuclear weapons are in storage. Mark Cancian, who worked on nuclear weapons in the US defense and energy departments, also believes that “the US can understand every move in preparations for Russia’s nuclear attack”, “The Russians will never be safe. that their actions will not be detected.. .. it will be a bet. “
So far, the US and NATO have found no unusual activity in the Russian nuclear arsenal, which means that Putin’s threats remain rhetorical for the time being.
On the other hand, the United States is demanding that Russia’s friend China and India prevent Putin from using nuclear weapons. On September 29, the US Political News website quoted US officials as saying that the US is lobbying Russia’s allies in the Indo-Pacific region to persuade Russia to “never use nuclear weapons,” including China and India.
PCCWhy can’t you stay out of it? There are two reasons. One is rightUkraineThere was a promise. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Ukraine once became the third largest country with nuclear weapons due to the large amount of weapons left by the Soviet Union in Ukraine. On December 5, 1994, the United States, Russia and the United Kingdom signed a diplomatic document known as the “Budapest Security Memorandum” at the meeting of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe held in Budapest, Hungary, respectively, with Ukraine, Belarus. and Kazakhstan.
Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom have pledged to respect the independence of Ukraine within its existing borders in exchange for Ukraine (or Belarus or Kazakhstan) joining the NPT and completing the transfer of the its nuclear arsenal to Russia, the memorandum states. sovereignty; refrain from any threats or use of force against Ukraine; refrain from using economic pressure on Ukraine to influence its policies; seek UN Security Council approval if nuclear weapons are used against Ukraine; not to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine.
On December 4, 2009, the expiration date of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), the United States and Russia issued a joint statement reaffirming the Budapest Security Assurance Memorandum signed with Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. The security guarantee will remain in effect after that. date.
In late 2013, during Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s visit to China, he signed a friendship treaty with then-President Xi Jinping, in which Article 2 of the treaty clearly stated that China highly appreciates the unilateral abandonment of nuclear weapons by Ukraine and that the Ukrainian side unilaterally renounced nuclear weapons in accordance with United Nations Security Council Resolution 984 and on 4 December 1994PCCThe government statement on providing security guarantees to Ukraine, unconditionally pledging not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine as a non-nuclear weapons state and to provide Ukraine with corresponding security in the event of aggression or threat of such aggression against Ukraine that uses nuclear weapons guarantees. According to reports, Ukraine is the only country that China has promised to provide it with nuclear safety guarantees. Therefore, for the sake of this commitment, the CCP cannot stay away and must do its best to ensure that Ukraine is not attacked by nuclear weapons.
Another reason is that China and Russia are strategic assistance partners for all seasons: Beijing once promised “unlimited cooperation” and Russia, which is currently stuck in political, economic, military and technological difficulties due to sanctions, has urgent need for all kinds of support and assistance from Beijing If Moscow uses nuclear weapons, Putin must weigh them too.
According to the author, if Putin uses nuclear weapons, it will only accelerate the end of the war and the end of the betrayal, because no one in the world will allow such a thing to happen, including the politicians and the Russian people. For Beijing, it would face an even more embarrassing situation if Moscow insisted on using nuclear weapons. If he wants to support Russia again, he will surely be sanctioned by the West, and joining the camp of Western sanctions and fulfilling his commitment to Ukraine means losing Russia as a “good partner”, and he is even more lonely and desolate.
So what is the likelihood that Putin, who has twice launched nuclear threats, will drop a nuclear bomb? The author believes that as long as you still have a normal thought, you will not be so counterproductive.
Responsible editor: Pu Shan
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