As for the situation in the Taiwan Strait, Professor Zhao Chunshan, a heavyweight scholar on both sides of the blue field, believes the time for reckoning in the Taiwan Strait is approaching; Xi Jinping sees very clearly that Taiwan is moving further and further away from the mainland step by step. Together with the external factors of the United States, it turns out that Taiwan can do what it wants as long as it does not part, but now it is following the Americans to get it, will it lose Taiwan? He thought she would see the change in his life.
As for the situation in the Taiwan Strait, the trend of the confrontation between the United States and China and the trend of China after the 20th National Congress, we are talking about people.
Zhao Chunshan said that from rational thinking, he agrees with Xu Xinliang’s idea. And now history has yet to prove whether two nuclear powers will go to war. Because a war will destroy each other. Therefore, rationality assumes that neither nuclear power plant wants to go to war.
Zhao Chunshan said that neither China nor the United States wants to go to war, but how to deal with the issues of the Strait?
Thucydides’ trap, US-China nuclear powers will fight proxy war
American scholar Graham Tillett Allison, Jr., in his book “Destined For War”, once proposed the “Thucydides trap”, saying, “The rise of Athens and the fear of Sparta eventually led to war. Inevitably, “he believes that” China and the United States are currently in a process of war and conflict. “
Zhao Chunshan said, but the so-called “final war” between China and the United States, the entire international order is now dominated by the United States, but the Laotian Communist Party believes that “the east rises and the west falls” is a trend. In the future, the east wind will always prevail over the west wind. Socialism and the new model of centralization can still make China stronger, so instead of following your method, I, Putin, North Korea and Iran have to establish separate rules. The United Nations was created by the United States and, as a result, Trump “withdrew from the group” when he showed up.
Zhao Chunshan said that if there is “a war at the end” but the two nuclear powers cannot fight, it is “a proxy war”, and he fears that Taiwan will become a “prosecutor”.
More ambiguous and unreliable is the US strategy
Zhao Chunshan said he often said to Americans and people from the Taiwan Association: “I don’t trust you Americans. The more vague you are, the less I trust you. You should tell me clearly when something happens to me in Taiwan, what are you going to do. ? “
Zhao Chunshan said that after the DPP came to power, the old Communist Party ignored it. The result of his choice of side became “The United States takes your loyalty for granted, because you have no other choice.” Therefore, Taiwan should be a “horror lover”. No, you still have the “One China” policy, I will always be your lover and take my loyalty for granted. “Therefore, Taiwan should say to the US,” When you don’t love me, I will serve you every day, you When you go, do not throw away. I’ll never let you get rid of me. “
Zhao Chunshan said the US made it clear: “I do not support Taiwan independence and the unique China policy. You have to defend yourself. We are willing to provide weapons and these weapons are not free as they are given in Ukraine.” But no matter how much Taiwan defends itself and how many weapons it supplies, it cannot manage the Laotian Communist Party, it is too asymmetrical. Now it seems that the United States will not send troops: “Do we spend it every day? So I’m also pessimistic.”
The blue and green parts of Taiwan are fighting a cognitive war, just as there can be national interests
Zhao Chunshan said that compared to when Xu Xinliang was the chairman of the DPP, there was a debate on Chinese politics, but now there is no debate. It is absolutely impossible for Taiwan to be united, as President Tsai said: “Absolutely not.” This is the current situation. Chen Shizhong will be on Yukou’s show last week, and Gu Lixiong will be on Wang Shiqi’s show. What do Lanying people watch? Both blue and green are fighting the cognitive war. From such a small thing, can you see where Taiwan’s problem lies and still need to join? However, the mainland is 99% willing to unify Taiwan, but Taiwan itself has done so internally. There is a problem with Taiwan’s identity, how can there be consistent national interests? Can’t you see where the “Taiwan Consensus” that President Tsai is talking about is? Once the election is over, there will be no consensus and society will be divided once.
Zhao Chunshan said that if you want to rely on the United States, you must be a lover of terror. But his point of view is not to be the lover of the United States, not to rely on the United States. But if you are not an American lover, will you be forced to be Xi Jinping’s lover? Zhao Chunshan said that with the current situation in Taiwanese society, she would rather be an American lover than Xi Jinping’s wife.
The “1992 Consensus” was a useful tool, but it became electoral poison
Zhao Chunshan said the “1992 consensus” is now an electoral poison. However, he deeply felt that the operation of the “1992 Consensus” for several years was good and very useful.
As for the definition of the “1992 consensus”, Zhao Chunshan used the metaphor of believing in God to say that we all believe in God. You are the God you drew, which is different from what I drew, but no matter what, we all believe in God. So no matter what the “1992 consensus” is, it’s a tool. He echoed Freeman’s statement that Taiwan should live a low-key life and said, “That’s right, you had a high profile and you lived a great life, but so what? Taiwan needs to survive now. But fears that.” the moment of reckoning is near. “” I thought I couldn’t see it and thought it would drag on for decades, but now I think I can see change when I live. It’s just that in the last few years. “
Zhao Chunshan said that Xi Jinping can compromise on any issue, but not the Taiwan issue, and he cannot afford to lose Taiwan. People on the mainland could not accept it. When Hong Kong and Macau were taken back, only Taiwan did not. When the two sides of the cyber army blame each other, from Xi Jinping’s point of view, there are times when we are not with me: Taiwan is moving further and further away from the mainland step by step.
The US factor makes it impossible for Xi Jinping to tolerate the loss of Hong Kong and Taiwan
Zhao Chunshan said the most important point is that they ignored the external factor: the United States. Could it be that the mainland is an idiot and can’t see it? If the Taiwan Policy Act is passed in the future and Taiwan and the United States become quasi-diplomatic relations, what will Xi Jinping do? It turns out that Taiwan can do whatever it wants, as long as it doesn’t separate, but now it is following the Americans to get it: from the point of view of Chinese culture and from the point of view of Xi, does it want to lose Taiwan?
Zhao Chunshan said that in the past Hong Kong used to run and dance according to the horse, but when the United States passed the Hong Kong Act, the mainland believed that the United Kingdom had left and the United States had intervened; when Lin Feifan went back to Hong Kong, from Beijing, the whole world was against me. Everyone gathered in Hong Kong. Can’t get it back? I let you go? I will do it. As a result, what happened to the United States? I just use a difficult method to limit your election. What can you do? This is my land. Likewise, the mainland also believes that Taiwan is my Chinese homeland. As Taiwan moves further and further away, for Xi Jinping, all historical positions are zero.
