Four years ago, on May 20, 2019, the sixth President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky took office.
The new head of state promised fellow citizens “the end of the era of poverty” and “the end of the era of lies,” while his political opponents were waiting for the era of Zelensky himself to end.
More precisely, not even an era: in the opinion of opponents, the arrival of Vladimir Alexandrovich on Bankovaya looked like a short-term historical misunderstanding. It was believed that the amateur president would fail much faster than his predecessors – professional politicians.
Skeptics had no doubt that Ze’s popularity would burst like a soap bubble. That this will happen within a matter of months. That the layman Zelensky will be able to stay afloat only in greenhouse conditions, with a very favorable external conjuncture.
However, in reality, everything turned out exactly the opposite.
Zelensky’s presidential term has seen two crises unthinkable in 2019: first the coronavirus pandemic, then a full-scale Russian invasion. And the current level of confidence in the president exceeds 80% – and this is more than he had at the time of taking office.
Of course, observers are right who say that the consolidation of the country in wartime plays into Ze’s hands. But this is not the whole truth: since the anomalous sociological dynamics was demonstrated by Zelensky even before the big war.
Enough to study comparative infographicsdated fall 2021. If popular disappointment in Poroshenko and Yanukovych for the most part turned out to be irreversible, then the sixth president periodically won back the interest he had lost earlier.
Like a roly-poly toy, the guarantor managed to restore balance after another fall.
See also: Three years later
Perhaps Zelensky’s skills as a professional actor are having an effect. Vladimir Aleksandrovich is accustomed to “feel the audience” – and is ready to quickly adjust his own image, starting from the requests of the audience. Even if this audience is not hundreds of people, but millions.
The current Zelensky has little in common with the 2021 Zelensky and even less with the 2019 Zelensky. But in any role – be it a peacemaker president or a warrior president – he looks quite organic.
Be that as it may, in May 2019, no one could have imagined that the founder of the 95th quarter would be extremely popular after four years of presidency. And against the backdrop of a full-scale war.
The irreconcilable opponents of Ze found themselves in an unenviable position. And the most eloquent evidence of this is the arguments with which they are forced to operate. For example, this fragment from the sensational articles by historian Alexander Zinchenko:
“The exchange rate of the dollar in April 2019 was 27 hryvnias. After 4 years, it became 37 hryvnias per dollar.
The euro exchange rate in April 2019 was 30 hryvnias, it became 41 hryvnias per euro.
Gasoline cost UAH 26-30 per liter, it became UAH 46-48.”
Probably without realizing it, the author reproduced the favorite rhetoric of the pro-Russian forces after 2014: “Under Yanukovych, the dollar was at 8, and now at 27. Have you jumped on your Maidan ?!”
Friends of the Kremlin compared the prices of gasoline and food before and after the Maidan and considered their argument extremely convincing – but did not meet with understanding in Ukrainian society. Most Ukrainians perceived the victory of the Maidan as a natural and natural historical process: and if so, the Maidan could not be blamed for Russian aggression and related economic problems.
See also: Ukraine and its “if”
On the contrary, for Moscow and its supporters, the Maidan was an unnatural departure from the normal course of history, the result of a temporary insanity. It was assumed that the reminder of the dollar at 8 would help to sober up the people.
Supporters of Petro Poroshenko have been dreaming of the same sobering up for the fifth year already.
But Russia did not wait for the mass repentance of Ukrainians for the Maidan, and the fans of the fifth president will not wait for the mass repentance of fellow citizens for the election of Zelensky.
The representative of Anti-Maidan did not become Poroshenko’s successor, and, obviously, the representative of the offended revenge party will not replace Zelensky either.
Like the popular uprising in the fall of 2013, Ze’s rise to power was neither an unfortunate accident nor an unnatural deviation from the normal historical process.
Zelensky’s four-year era has already contained more drama and heroism than Kuchma’s ten-year rule.
Vladimir Alexandrovich has already secured a place in the history books. The intrigue is when and on what note his era will end.
Will the next presidential election take place in the spring of 2024 – or will it have to be postponed?
Will Zelensky run for a second term, and if so, will he be re-elected?
How long and successful will his post-war presidency be?
So far, there are no answers to these questions and cannot be.
The real blow to Zelensky’s political future would be a lost war. But, probably, even the most ardent haters of Ze do not want his defeat at the cost of defeating their own Motherland.
And Ukraine’s victory in the war with Russia will automatically turn into a personal triumph for the president. And, of course, in this case, there is a risk that Vladimir Alexandrovich will bronze. He will be carried away by resting on his laurels, believe in his own lack of alternatives, evolve into a classic autocrat and offer the country a simple formula “There is Zelensky – there is Ukraine, there is no Zelensky – there is no Ukraine.”
Similar fears are already heard among the opposition intelligentsia.
Paradoxically, the guarantor can be kept from such a scenario not even by the resistance of society, but by his own ambitions. The desire to rise above their predecessors – and to achieve what none of them have yet managed to achieve.
See also: At the center of the universe
In the entire history of independent Ukraine, not a single domestic president has managed to leave gracefully.
Leonid Kravchuk was forced to leave his post ahead of schedule, losing the election to the oppositionist Kuchma.
Viktor Yushchenko set an anti-record by trying to get re-elected and gaining a humiliating 5.45%.
Petro Poroshenko suffered a crushing defeat from yesterday’s comedian.
Leonid Kuchma held out on Bankovaya for two full terms, but he had to leave under the revolutionary chant “Kuchma, Yanukovych – the naris will be instructed.”
The departure of Yanukovych himself is not even worth remembering.
But Vladimir Zelensky has a chance to become an exception. A favorable outcome of the war will give the guarantor a unique option – to leave the presidency, remaining the people’s favorite.
Leave not to the hooting of the crowd, but to the applause of compatriots and foreign spectators. Leave not defeated, but a winner.
Vladimir Alexandrovich is an artistic person, and a beautiful departure from Bankova may seem to him no less tempting option than a long-term presidency.
And whether Zelensky will have such an opportunity, and whether the current head of state will take advantage of it, we will find out in the foreseeable future.
Mikhail Dubinyansky
2023-05-20 00:42:57
#Zelensky #era
