Zelensky paved the way for the plan when he said a few days ago that if the president agrees to negotiate, the West should consider providing security guarantees to Russia.
Unreal show
Russian observers believe that the Ukrainian offer is unrealistic and includes conditions that do not reflect the balance of power between Moscow and Kiev, despite the field progress of Ukrainian forces in Kherson, for example, but the Russians remain the strongest in several military and strategic sectors measures.
On the other hand, there are those who believe that the Russians were unable to implement their plan through war and the option of force until they were close to completing a year of warfare, with casualties in the field, while they lost thousands of kilometers to the east.
Others believe Zelensky’s mere return to talking about dialogue and negotiation as a way to end conflict within his country is a positive sign, regardless of the details of the rumors and points he has made, as do the Russian side and Ukraine have no alternative but to rely on peaceful and diplomatic compromises, especially as the war is almost entering its second year.
Crisis prospects
Professor of the Faculty of Orientalism of the Moscow Higher School of Economics Rami Al-Qalyubi says:"Zelensky’s peace plan includes some realistic proposals, such as those relating to nuclear power, radiation, energy and food security, but includes impossible conditions such as demanding compliance with the UN Charter and the restoration of Ukrainian lands annexed by Russia, including Crimea, and the withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine by the end of this year.".
And the researcher continued in an interview with the site "Sky News Arabia"That these requests are unrealistic and practically unenforceable"Crimea, for example, was annexed by Russia in 2014, and therefore the West also did not impose severe sanctions on Moscow at that time, settling for face-saving formal sanctions and registering a stance".
Qalyubi adds "Zelensky terms; Especially the proposal to withdraw Russian forces from its country is not applicable, as the Kremlin made clear, as Russia has not waged a war for 10 months to withdraw so easily, and there are 4 regions in Ukraine that have been annexed by Russia and that annexation was constitutionally established.".
However, the Russian annexation of four regions of Ukraine has not gained international recognition, while the flames of war have spread to Crimea itself, whose annexation was announced in 2014.
compromise scenarios
adds the researcher "Therefore, the possibilities of this plan in its current form are completely non-existent, but at a later stage, when the war exhausts both sides, compromise solutions can be reached, such as the implicit Ukrainian recognition of Russia’s sovereignty over the Donbass; Luhansk and Donetsk in the east of the country, in exchange for the cession by the Russians of some areas in the southern provinces of Kherson and Zaporozhye".
He added "To save face, Russia can then justify this by holding a referendum on the demarcation of borders within them, and while these borders will not be internationally recognized, Kiev will, as a concession, avoid working to forcibly restore them, so that the situation becomes similar, for example, to what happens in the Kuril Islands, disputed between Tokyo and Moscow, or to the situation in Northern Cyprus, i.e. the freezing of the conflict without solution and without international recognition of the status quo".
A plan was stillborn
For his part, says the writer and expert on Russian affairs, Bassam Al-Bunni, in an interview with the site "Sky News Arabia"Zelensky’s plan was stillborn, as through it he demands the return of Ukrainian lands, a request that is flatly rejected by the Russians, who consider them Russian lands.".
However, there are those who wonder what concession Russia can make or negotiate, if it is determined to keep all the lands it controlled in Ukraine, because settlement at that time becomes synonymous with"Ukrainian surrender".
The researcher added that the Russian president uses the term Novorossiya, i.e. new Russia, to describe these areas, which stretch from Kharkov in the north to Odessa in the south.
Brown adds "The issue is bigger than Ukraine, and Moscow’s conditions for ending the ongoing global conflict and its field is the Ukrainian theater are well known, as the crux of the dispute concerns the security guarantees that Moscow demands from the West and by NATO, the most important of which is the withdrawal of the Atlantic missile systems deployed after 1997 in Eastern European countries and the halting of the deployment of NATO soldiers in some of those countries, such as Poland, where it is unreasonable that Russia accepts the presence of NATO in this way on its borders".
For its part, Washington says that Putin’s intervention was motivated by the encirclement of NATO in Europe, but led to the opposite result, namely the expansion of the military alliance, after Sweden and Finland presented an official request accession, while Western weapons generously arrived in Ukraine.
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Plan details
Zelensky highlighted 3 main points included in the plan; She pulls Russia To his forces completely from Ukraine and not to submit Kiev No compromises, safety guarantee Ukraine and its territorial integrity.
Zelensky paved the way for the plan when he said a few days ago that if the president agrees to negotiate, the West should consider providing security guarantees to Russia.
Unreal show
Russian observers believe that the Ukrainian offer is unrealistic and includes conditions that do not reflect the balance of power between Moscow and Kiev, despite the field progress of Ukrainian forces in Kherson, for example, but the Russians remain the strongest in several military and strategic sectors measures.
On the other hand, there are those who believe that the Russians were unable to implement their plan through war and the option of force until they were close to completing a year of warfare, with casualties in the field, while they lost thousands of kilometers to the east.
Others believe Zelensky’s mere return to talking about dialogue and negotiation as a way to end conflict within his country is a positive sign, regardless of the details of the rumors and points he has made, as do the Russian side and Ukraine have no alternative but to rely on peaceful and diplomatic compromises, especially as the war is almost entering its second year.
Crisis prospects
Rami Al-Qalyubi, a professor at the Orientalism Faculty of the Moscow Higher School of Economics, says: “Zelinsky’s peace plan includes some realistic proposals, such as those relating to nuclear power, radiation, energy and food security, but it includes impossible conditions such as the demand to fulfill the UN Charter and restore Russian-annexed Ukrainian lands, including Crimea, and withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine by the end of this year.
And the researcher continued in an interview with “Sky News Arabia” that these requests are unrealistic and practically unenforceable.
Al-Qalyubi adds: “Zelinsky’s conditions, especially the proposal to withdraw Russian forces from his country, are not applicable, as the Kremlin clarified, as Russia has not waged a war for 10 months to withdraw so easily, and there are 4 regions in Ukraine that have been annexed to Russia and that annexation has been constitutionally established.”
However, the Russian annexation of four regions of Ukraine has not gained international recognition, while the flames of war have spread to Crimea itself, whose annexation was announced in 2014.
compromise scenarios
The researcher adds: “Therefore, the possibilities of this plan in its current form are completely non-existent, but at a later stage, when the war exhausts both sides, compromises can be reached, such as the implicit Ukrainian recognition of Russia’s sovereignty on Donbass; Luhansk and Donetsk in the east of the country, in exchange for the Russians giving up some areas in the southern provinces of Kherson and Zaporozhye.” “.
He added: “To save face, Russia can then justify this by holding a referendum on the demarcation of borders in both countries, and while these borders will not be internationally recognized, Kiev will, as a concession, avoid working to restore them in force.” so that the situation becomes more like the existing one.” In the Kuril Islands disputed between Tokyo and Moscow, or in the situation in Northern Cyprus, i.e. in the sense of freezing the conflict without a solution and without international recognition of the status quo.
A plan was stillborn
For his part, the writer and expert on Russian affairs, Bassam al-Bunni, said in an interview with Sky News Arabia that Zelensky’s plan was stillborn, as through it he calls for the return of Ukrainian lands, which he demanded which is completely rejected by the Russians, who consider it Russian lands.
However, there are those who wonder what concession Russia can make or negotiate, if it is determined to keep all the lands it controlled in Ukraine, because the deal at that moment becomes synonymous with “Ukrainian surrender”.
The researcher added that the Russian president uses the term Novorossiya, i.e. new Russia, to describe these areas, which stretch from Kharkov in the north to Odessa in the south.
Al-Bunni added, “The issue is bigger than Ukraine, and Moscow’s conditions for ending the ongoing global conflict and its turf is the Ukrainian theater are well known, as the core of the dispute relates to guarantees of security that Moscow demands from the West and NATO, the most important of which is the withdrawal of the Atlantic missile systems deployed after 1997 in Eastern European countries, and the halting of the deployment of NATO soldiers in some of those countries , like Poland, since it is unreasonable Russia to accept the presence of NATO in this way on its borders.
For its part, Washington claims that Putin’s intervention was motivated by the encirclement of NATO in Europe, but led to the opposite result, namely the expansion of the military alliance, after Sweden and Finland submitted an official request for accession, while Western weapons have generously come to Ukraine.
