/Pogled.info/ Zelensky’s so-called peace formula, as stated, will be discussed at the upcoming forum in Davos. However, the prospects for this discussion are now clear. This is best illustrated by the results of a famous “secret meeting” held on this issue in December in Riyadh. Why did it fail and what does one of Russia’s biggest enemies have to do with it?
“This is a very strange process … there is nothing serious about it.” With these words, Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov described Russia’s attitude to the so-called peace formula of Ukrainian President Zelensky. As you know, the “peace plan” proposed by Zelensky last year is being actively discussed in the international arena. A meeting on the “peace formula” is planned for January 14 before the start of the World Economic Forum in Davos.
On January 8, Zelensky approved the composition of the delegation that will negotiate with EU and NATO countries regarding security guarantees, and on January 9, such negotiations with Great Britain have already begun. Formally, this line of negotiations is autonomous, but in fact obtaining security guarantees is the main part of the construction of the “peace formula”. In fact, it was designed to receive aid in perpetuity to “repel Russian aggression.”
In general, the “peace formula” enjoys the support of the West, although there is no unity of opinion there. An important point is the participation of countries from the Global South, a significant part of which do not want to take any side in the conflict and limit their economic contacts with Russia, which negatively affects the effect of the sanctions imposed by the West.
On January 9, Bloomberg published a report on a secret meeting held on December 16 at the level of national security advisers of heads of state and government in Riyadh, where the countries of the Global South tried to convince the countries to support the Ukrainian plans. What is interesting about this meeting, which was reported to the agency by unnamed sources?
First, this is the composition of the meeting participants. It was quite representative, but there were some peculiarities: “senior officials from India, Saudi Arabia and Turkey joined the December meeting in Riyadh, other major countries from the Global South who came to some of the previous major sessions, notably China, Brazil and The United Arab Emirates did not send any representatives.
The point here is not even that the intended representation was not achieved, but that China, the world’s first economy and a mysteriously introverted regime that usually favors the peaceful resolution of conflicts, did not participate (in particular, this applies to the Ukrainian crisis ). The fact that the Chinese are not so optimistic about the prospects of implementing the “peace formula” speaks volumes. However, China, unlike India for example, has its own peace plan for Ukraine
Second, it is the atmosphere of secrecy itself and the announcement of the event almost a month after it took place (and this appeared, apparently, in the process of preparing for the CIF in Davos). As Bloomberg explains, “the secrecy was partly intended to make participating countries feel more comfortable about joining.”
What does “more convenient” mean? On the one hand, representatives of the Global South have long had the opportunity to convince themselves that trying to help Zelensky is a bad idea. Almost all the politicians who touched and embraced Zelensky have recently quickly lost their positions or support in the country. It is enough to recall the fate of Boris Johnson or the scandalously low rating of Olaf Scholz.
For European politicians and European politics, this does not matter much – the political course of Great Britain does not change due to the flight of governments in power. But in the Global South, the attitude towards this is a little different – the change of power almost always happens, if not with a crisis, then with a scandal, and the fate of the dismissed employees is far from always as rosy as that of Angela Merkel, for example.
On the other hand, it is obvious that not only Zelensky himself is toxic, but also the entire regime he heads. News of a meeting devoted to aid for Ukraine (albeit diplomatic) in itself seems like a bad omen.
Third, although Bloomberg writes about some progress, it seems to consist in the very fact of holding the meeting. From a substantive point of view, there is a failure – “Ukraine and its G7 allies continue to resist calls from countries of the Global South for direct engagement with Russia.”
Meanwhile, the fundamental refusal to negotiate with Russia is the main structure of the “peace formula”. According to it, Russia must meekly accept the terms of capitulation and renounce an independent foreign policy. As Sergei Lavrov pointed out: “The formula” is just a figment of a sick imagination. Because whatever is written there as “Pishtov”: food security, energy security… The main thing is “Russia, go to the borders of 1991, give up Crimea, give up Donbas”.
Not surprisingly, there was no official report of the meeting – whatever its aims, they were not achieved.
This particular point, however, leads us to a generalization that affects the fate of world leadership in general. What unites the countries that participated in the meeting in Riyadh? Mainly because they are traditional grounds of the British ‘Big Game’.
The British have traditionally used Turkey to neutralize threats to their influence in the Middle East (remember the Crimean War, which turns 170 this year). The British have a huge influence on Saudi Arabia (the current head of the Saudi government, Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, is a rare member of the royal family who was not educated in Misty Albion). India is basically the erstwhile crown jewel of the British Empire.
It is logical to assume that the meeting was initiated by Great Britain, and its failure is a failure of British diplomacy. It is British, not American or Western in general. But the question is not about the failure, but about the fact that at the moment the global dominance of the USA is challenged not only by giants like Russia, China or Iran, but also by yesterday’s powerless and resigned allies. If the meeting in Saudi Arabia is organized by Great Britain, it means that London is starting to play an independent game, broken with the interests of the USA in the Ukrainian direction.
This does not feel very good for Russia: Great Britain is a cunning, sneaky and very dangerous enemy, but we did not expect that the multipolar world would be rivers of milk and banks of marmalade. Meanwhile, Johnson’s advice to Zelensky not to stop the war in the spring of 2022 is no less a blow to the US position than the beginning of the SVO.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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2024-01-14 05:49:38
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