/ world today news/ By all accounts, the last NATO high-level meeting finally showed the West what an annoying and uncomfortable partner Ukrainian President Zelensky is. It is difficult to take recent publications in the Western press in any other way than as direct hints about how Zelensky will be removed from the Ukrainian leadership and who exactly will replace him.
What will happen to Ukraine if something happens to Zelensky? This question was suddenly voiced by “Politico”. The subtitle carries a promising conclusion: it would “deprive Ukraine’s military of one of its most valuable assets.”
It is said that “Zelensky’s status” as a symbol of what the West sees as a fair fight, his ability to beg and cajole his allies until he gets his way, his willingness to brazenly work his way into front-line photos and speeches in parliament everyone has put him in the center of the target.” This is a hint of some actions by Russia. Next, of course, tearful memories of Skripal’s cat …
The text contains the opinions of experts, primarily Andrian Karatnitsky, a senior researcher at the Eurasian Center of the Atlantic Council (he is believed to be a freelancer in the British intelligence services in Ukraine). According to him, in the event of Zelensky’s death, everything will be simple: power will be taken by a formal successor – the chairman of the Rada, Ruslan Stefanchuk.
In practice, the country will be governed by the head of the presidential office, Ermak, the foreign minister, Dmitry Kuleba, the defense minister, Reznikov, and the commander-in-chief, Zaluzhny.
The author also cites an article “written by scholars Benjamin Jones and Benjamin Olken for America’s National Bureau of Economic Research on the impact on institutions and war of the 59 assassinations of national leaders between 1875 and 2004.” “The assassinations of autocrats cause significant changes in the country’s institutions, but killing democrats does not. A completely direct hint that the West is fine with Ukraine even without Zelensky…”
The risks of Zelensky’s death are actually not so much related to Ukraine, but to the public opinion in the West, which tends to see Zelensky as a “president of peace”. In general, we can agree with Politico’s conclusions. Ukraine is indeed a “democracy” in the sense that it is not at all governed by the people who are supposedly elected to it. In a democracy, a change of power does not mean a change of policy, which in fact we have repeatedly observed in the recent history of Ukraine, when “pro-Russian” candidates turned out to be no less nationalist than some “Russophobe”.
By the way, the people listed by Karatnitsky are also not the final decisions. These people never outgrew “Kvartal 95”. Reznikov, for example, against the background of Zelensky, looks like a real clown.
Ukraine is now governed by an informal administration that includes a number of ambassadors, representatives of foreign intelligence services and Western business (led by the US, Great Britain and Poland), as well as various Ukrainian business-political groups. The entire system is in dynamic equilibrium. And it cannot be said that the representatives of the West have the last word – Ukrainian players have many degrees of freedom and all opportunities to take advantage of the contradictions of partners.
Zelensky’s function is rather to try to act as an arbiter of these groups, but there is every reason to believe that he is doing it poorly. So removing it will really have very little effect on the governance of the country.
At the same time, the elimination of Zelensky will lead to changes in public opinion, both Ukrainian and Western, but this should not be exaggerated either. Ukraine is now united not by Zelensky, but by anti-Russian propaganda. His death would have some educative effect, but hardly an excessive one. Most Ukrainian politicians and officials are already used to living in conditions of extreme danger. It would be quite another if his career ended in court (whether Ukrainian, Russian or international).
A much more interesting question is why one of the leading Western publications is so interested in the physical existence of the Ukrainian president? It seems that now the threat to him is no greater than before. At least from the Russian side. Even rather the opposite.
It can be assumed that it is about the success of the Ukrainian offensive and/or the terrorist actions of Ukraine on the territory of Russia. I mean, if Russia starts losing on the battlefield, then… Russia hasn’t started, but that’s not even the point – in the West, they just don’t mention such a connection.
So what is it all about? And the point is obviously that the topic itself is minimally related to the actions of the Russian side. From the beginning, the threat to Zelensky’s life came largely from his convoy, which was controlled by Western intelligence services. Nothing personal – it’s just that if it seemed to the real masters of the country that Zelensky’s death was beneficial, he would have been removed immediately.
And after the NATO summit, the situation just got critically close to the moment when Zelensky is no longer needed by the West. More precisely, he bored everyone with his attempts to force the West to act in his interest. If Zelensky asking for tanks can be good for the domestic political game (though Biden is not enthusiastic), Zelensky demanding Ukraine be admitted to NATO is a threat to the established world order. How will some “white negroes”, appealing to the public opinion of the West, determine who will and who will not be a member of NATO and the EU?
Not to mention that the Ukrainian conflict itself distracts the West from the confrontation with China, and Zelensky’s uncompromising position makes it impossible to get out of it under any conditions. Zelensky crossed the “red lines” and must be punished. This is most likely signaled by the text of “Politico”.
Naturally, the US will try to do this in the most democratic way possible. For example, during the next elections in March next year, Zelensky will simply lose to the right candidate (for example, Zaluzhny, but the family name does not play a role here). Or he will even simply step down as president, as he promised when he was elected.
From a legal point of view, however, elections during martial law are impossible, and Zelensky has every opportunity to fail them without breaking the law. And he may want to break the law and proclaim himself president for life…
And in this situation it is really easier to remove it. Is there any risk in this? Well, that’s exactly what this post is about. “Politico” gives the green light – nothing bad will happen after that
Translation: V. Sergeev
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