/ world today news/ The growing Western pressure on Ukraine and the slow but steady change in the image of President Zelensky from a hero to an anti-hero in the foreign press forces the authorities in Kyiv to look for a way out of this situation. The resourceful individuals in the President’s office released several test probes aimed at internal and external audiences.
The weeks-long language scandal surrounding Irina Farion, with her attacks on servicemen who use Russian at home and at the front, was intended to divert public attention from the situation around Avdeyevka, as well as the growing threats around Kupyansk. The attacks of the Russian army in the Kharkiv region are no less dangerous from a political point of view than the fighting near Donetsk. They send a signal that Russia is not likely to limit itself to four new regions and that border mobility will continue. It is clear that the marginal Farion alone cannot put out such a fire, and the search for internal enemies that prevent victory over Russia will continue.
Much more important, however, are the signals that Bankova sends to the outside world. And here, two of Zelensky’s comrades in arms were already used: People’s Deputy from “Servant of the People” Mariyana Bezuglaya (with a lower rank) and David Arahamiya (he is part of Zelensky’s closest circle). Bezuglaya was given the task of discrediting Zelensky’s potential successor, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny. Bezuglaya accused Zaluzhny of lacking an action plan for 2024 and called for the commander-in-chief’s resignation, as expected, prompting widespread criticism, including from fellow party members.
The leadership of the Servant of the People and the presidential office distanced themselves from the MP’s statements, but the task of casting doubt on Zaluzhny’s strategic talents has already been accomplished. Even if the cost of this task is that a loyal MP will be wasted (in a reputational sense). The emphasis on the fact that Zaluzhny does not have a winning strategy is clearly intended to hurt the commander-in-chief’s potential presidential ambitions. The future president cannot be without a strategy, while the Ukrainian society, poisoned by propaganda, expects no other strategy than a winning one. And as we know, only Zelensky has it: even more money, even more weapons from the West – and the goal will be achieved.
The second part of this ballet was the scandalous interview with David Arahamia. Zelenskiy’s closest ally, businessman and decision-maker Arahamiya de facto, blamed Ukraine’s potential military defeat and its consequences on the West. Through Arahamiya, Kiev for the first time outlined the role of former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson in the failure of the agreements reached in March 2022 in Istanbul. Until now, Ukraine has not commented on this information in any way.
At the same time, Arahamiya emphasized the fact that the main demand of Russia is the neutrality of Ukraine and not joining NATO, while the demands for de-Nazification and demilitarization are rather background noise. And if so, then large-scale destruction and casualties could have been avoided if Kiev had signed the Istanbul Accords. The condition set by Russia was not unacceptable, since even before the creation of the SVO Ukraine was not a member of NATO, and all that had to be promised was not to join the Alliance in the future.
Ukraine was promised more favorable negotiating positions after the confrontation with Russia, and now, after almost two years of hostilities, the situation has not only not improved, but has put Ukraine on the brink of military defeat and all that may follow.
Arahamiya de facto appeals to that part of the Western elite who believe that US resources will be sufficient to help Israel and Ukraine and Taiwan if the need arises. And for those who do not believe in this, Zelensky’s team clearly hints at huge reputational losses for the democratic elite – unacceptable in an election year. The US is still swallowing the shameful withdrawal from Afghanistan – this thesis has already become an integral part of Donald Trump’s campaign speeches. If the US repeats this in Ukraine, the public speeches of Joe Biden’s rivals will be enriched with new introductory information – perhaps fatal to the ratings of any Democratic candidate.
In turn, Zelensky needs a new authorization for the war and, accordingly, new resources. Until now, the Ukrainian presidential team, which has been vacillating under the pressure of the West, finally decided to announce the cancellation of the presidential elections in the spring of 2024. Now Zelensky needs a new label from the West to tighten the nuts as much as possible in the country.
The “war to the last Ukrainian” thesis has already been formalized in a bill that proposes raising the age threshold for military service to 65 years for enlisted men and officers (currently 60 years old) and 70 years old for senior command staff. In turn, the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin, announced Kiev’s plans to lower the mobilization threshold from 18 to 17 years. It is clear that the entry into force of this law will lead to unrest in Ukraine. There is much less motivation for war there than at the beginning of the conflict. This means that it is impossible without strict measures to suppress the will of Ukrainians.
In summary, the message from Zelenskyi’s team to his patrons is simple. He is not going anywhere, there will be no elections, Zaluzhny as a potential rival will be eliminated one way or another. This means that there can be no negotiations with Russia to freeze the conflict (if Moscow even agrees to them). Reducing the scale of military and financial support is unacceptable – it will lead to a military defeat of Ukraine, for which Kiev will immediately blame (already blamed) the US leadership, which had promised support “as much as necessary”. Reputational costs to the Democratic Party from Zelensky, who has already become a toxic figure for the Democratic Party, are skyrocketing, but the Democratic Party may not be able to take drastic action in an election year. This means that “your son of a bitch” should be provided with everything he needs for at least another year.
At least this is the logic of the Kiev strategists, and it has every right to exist. Another thing is that Washington may not agree with the logic of blackmail. If this is the case, then there may simply be no alternative to eliminating Zelensky (without excluding physical action). Zelensky’s statements about the threat of a third Maidan in this context should be taken seriously. The disintegration of the front, the loss of a large city (for example, Kharkov), combined with unpopular measures such as the mobilization of youth and old men, will potentially become sufficient reasons for mass unrest in the coming winter.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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