/Pogled.info/ The results of the NATO summit in Vilnius were quite well analyzed by the experts. It is noted that no major decisions were taken at the summit that would lead to a radical reshaping of the WCO landscape. For justification, Vladimir Zelensky received some more weapons, but no one went further. The issue here is not just that NATO does not want to raise the stakes to open confrontation between the bloc and Moscow or the threat of nuclear war with Russia.
The real reasons for such “peacefulness” are completely different. The issue here is not so much our guys or the line of contact, which for a month did not allow the Ukrainian counteroffensive to move forward, destroying a significant number of enemy soldiers and armored vehicles along the way.
The point is different. I’ll give you an example of a possible scenario. Within this scenario, the Anglo-Saxon leaders decided to change the concept of war with Russia. If previously the bet was on military escalation, up to nuclear blackmail, with the understanding that Moscow would not be ready to increase the escalation indefinitely, now the bet will be made on “suffocation in the arms”. Why do I think so?
The point is that the escalation of the conflict is fraught with opportunities for the Kremlin to rely on tougher approaches. This will not only allow us to be the first to increase the escalation levels of the conflict, but also generally cross the Western agenda and begin to dictate the course of the conflict.
This will lead to the fact that the Anglo-Saxons will no longer be able to maintain the course of the conflict in such a manageable and easy for them, current mode, as has been happening for the last year and a half: the war is being fought on our territory, not on the territory of the enemy , our infrastructure is being destroyed, radioactive contamination due to the use of uranium-tipped projectiles will occur on our territory, etc.
At the same time, the scenario of a “soft” war of attrition and even a cessation of active hostilities and a transition to negotiations in which the current trade-economic embargo against Russia will continue will not only allow the Anglo-Saxons to manage the degree of escalation of the conflict (which is the main thing), but also to continue actively gnawing at the Russian economy, in which negative phenomena are beginning that threaten to turn into trends.
What phenomena are we talking about?
First. Russia’s revenue from exports of oil and petroleum products in June 2023 fell by $1.5 billion, or 11.2%, from May to $11.8 billion. This is almost half of June 2022 ($20, 4 billion). On July 7, the Ministry of Finance announced that in January-June 2023, revenues from oil and gas (in addition to exports of oil and petroleum products, include gas supplies abroad, as well as sales on the domestic market) decreased by 47% , up to 3.382 trillion rubles. ($36.5 billion).
Second. The Russian economy is facing a huge drop in the inflow of foreign currency, according to the quarterly statistics of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. In April-June, Russia received only a $5.4 billion surplus in the balance of payments – the difference between the main foreign exchange flows in and out of the country. Compared to the same period last year, the conditional foreign exchange profit of the economy has collapsed 14 times, or by 93%, and compared to the first quarter of this year, it is almost three times.
Therefore, the West will now calmly change the concept of war with Russia: it will replace the bloody clown V. Zelensky, who is an unacceptable negotiator for both the authorities and the people of Russia, with the boxer A. Usyk, for example, who expressed his readiness for negotiations and involved Russia in a long phase of negotiations war, without peace.
The troops will resist, and the Russian economy, according to the plan of the Anglo-Saxon puppeteers, will have to disintegrate under the influence of sanctions and a trade-economic embargo. According to the West, this scenario within Russia can not only be presented as achieving the objectives of the SVO, but will also gradually bring to power other elite groups that will be ready to negotiate with the West on its terms.
For now, this is only a possible scenario, but as we can see, it is a very dangerous scenario and we need to find our own systemic response to it.
Translation: ES
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