[이데일리 정수영 기자] The prospect is prevailing that the house price, which has risen for four consecutive years after the Moon Jae-in administration, will continue into the new year. Many of the economists come up with similar forecasts, and the same forecasts are also coming from statistics from research institutes.
On the 1st, the Bank of Korea announced that in December last year, in a survey of 2381 households in cities nationwide, the housing price forecast index for young people under the age of 40 recorded 137. Previously, following August (131) and November (136), the housing price outlook index hit a record high three times this year alone.
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An index greater than 100 means that there are more positive answers to the question than negative answers, and the greater the index exceeds 100, the higher the percentage of positive responses. In the end, it means that among those surveyed, the number of people who predicted that their home prices will be higher this year than now have increased more than the previous month. This index has been compiled since January 2013.
Similar answers came out at other ages. In this survey, the index for the outlook for housing prices for those aged 40 to under 50 was 129, a record high for two consecutive months following last November (128). Those over 50 to under 60 recorded 130, the highest in about six years since October 2014 (129). Over the age of 60 to under the age of 70 also recorded 132, reaching the highest point since October 2014 (131). For those aged 70 and older, where the demand for home sales is relatively low, it reached 135, approaching the record high of September 2018 (136) by one point.
Looking at the response results by job, both the salaried workers (132) and the self-employed (130) recorded the highest index ever, and the type of residence also recorded the highest value alongside the residents (134) such as self-residents (131) and tenants. The results were somewhat different. The housing price outlook index seen by residents of six metropolitan cities was the highest ever at 137 in December, but the number of residents in Seoul recorded 128, the third in history following September 2018 (137) and December 2019 (130).
Private research institutes and financial institutions are also looking to increase house prices next year. According to the Housing Industry Research Institute’s prediction of housing prices this year, taking into account economic variables and supply and demand indices, it is analyzed that the sales price will rise 1.5% in the whole country, 1.4% in the metropolitan area, and 1.5% in Seoul. The jeonse price is expected to increase by 3.1% nationwide, 3.3% in the metropolitan area, and 3.6% in Seoul.
In a recent KB Financial Group survey, 9 out of 10 realtors predicted that their house prices would rise next year. The opinion that the rise will be 1~3% (30% for intermediaries in the metropolitan area, 32% in the non-metropolitan area) was the most. A 0 to 1% rise was followed. Considering the increase in home sales prices (6.9%) from January to November of this year, the rate of increase is expected to slow somewhat.
The biggest reason for the outlook for rising house prices is the shortage of supply. In the ‘2021 Real Estate Outlook Survey’ conducted by E-Daily at the end of last month for 32 experts from various fields, including real estate information companies, academia, and construction company executives, experts pointed out supply shortages and jeonse difficulties as the background of rising house prices. It is explained that while the number of occupants in Seoul is expected to decrease next year, it will raise the trading price due to the rise in jeonse prices and lockdown.
There is also an analysis that the upward pressure will continue even in terms of macroscopic indicators. “The core factors that directly and indirectly affect real estate are the real economy, policy, supply and demand, interest rates, liquidity, psychology, and overseas real estate trends.” There are many.” He added, “The steeply rising jeonse price is also a leading indicator and is expected to act as a pressure to increase trading prices.”
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