/ world today news/ It is not the USA that shows us what the world will be like after the current confrontation, which has reached an extreme. Rather, America’s allies. In Europe it is, for example, Slovakia with the new government, but that is a separate conversation. In the Pacific region is Australia, whose Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is coming to Beijing this week. For a fight or for peace? And at the same time, both, but apparently there is nowhere else for them to fight. So they still have to reconcile, but in a way that doesn’t anger the White House.
This story is a miniature copy of what is happening between Washington and Beijing. That is, relaxation of tension, reduction of its level to a less dangerous level, a pause in the confrontation. And an attempt to understand in practice, how can such a thing be done so that it does not look like capitulation? The US is still failing.
Will the Aussies make it? If the answer is yes, it is because the authorities of this country at one time went too far. We are talking about the former government of Scott Morrison. The wild campaign of hatred against China that rages with him lends itself to several rational explanations. Perhaps it was a game like Zelensky’s: an attempt to present his country as under attack and get something material for it from the US and other allies, plus promises of protection. But it is also possible to talk about pure ideology, that is, the hesitation of some Australians whether this country is actually a white man’s fortress in Asia, an outpost of the West in a distant ocean or part of the Asia-Pacific region with its many tempting trading partners . Under Morrison, the Western and fiercely anti-Chinese slant exceeded all possible limits of safety. The mentioned Ukrainian experience shows: if you convince everyone around you long enough that some power threatens you in everything from the military sphere to ideology, then you can get it.
In one way or another, years of growing anger towards China have led to Australia’s neighbors and key trading partners now viewing it as “second-class Europe” and “second-class America”. That is, by trying to annoy China in every possible way and by making all kinds of military agreements with the United States, Australia lost the respect of other Asians – in fact, of all its neighbors. Those for whom the constant East-West confrontation is a threat to their own security.
Australia also received economic sanctions from China from 2020. And realized that no America and the West in general could compensate them. Therefore, a year ago the new Prime Minister Albanese met in Bali with the Chinese leader Xi Jinping. And from that moment, a retreat from the confrontation began – with a partial lifting of sanctions.
Beijing has many ways to exert economic pressure on the United States, and even more so on Australia. And even today – with the start of the mini-liquefaction process – China’s coal imports have reached only half their previous level. The situation is more or less the same with beef and iron ore. But when it comes to wine and other agricultural products, there is still a need to bargain, not to mention the fact that the Chinese consumer has been able to switch to other products.
But overall the year was a success. In the first five months, the trade turnover jumped by 19.4%, reaching almost 100 billion dollars. It remains to be seen what Albanese’s visit will bring. And here the question arises: what about the strategic agreements that the country has already concluded with the US? For example, one of them – AUKUS – suggests that Australia will receive nuclear submarines from the US – clearly why: to fight China. And now the same Albanian is now in the US, where he is trying to speed up the acquisition of submarines and explain that China is still a common threat to the entire West. And then he left for Beijing. How so?
He will have to search for a dilution formula, ahead of the locomotive. But the locomotive, that is, America itself, we repeat, is trying to reduce the intensity of the confrontation with Beijing. Before the eyes of all satellites is the fate of Ukraine and the unpredictable situation in the Middle East, which at the very least slows down any ties between the West and the world majority. Economic realities show that all of Australia’s losses from curtailing its business in Asia will not be covered. It remains to decide how to dance on his toes in some new position, taking into account all these factors at the same time, so that he does not take it away.
And the most interesting thing is that all the others belonging to the Western group of countries are in exactly the same situation today. It’s just that some people start dancing today, while others won’t until tomorrow.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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