Back in September, the movement held a stable position of about 30 percent, and according to the agency, the second wave of covid-19 could have had a negative effect on the development. Pirates would end up second with 13.5 percent support and the ODS with 13 percent, both sides strengthened against August. The CSSD recorded a drop in preferences of three percentage points, while the STAN movement improved by 2.5 points. Survey Median performed from 1 to 29 October, a time of record growth in people with confirmed coronavirus infection.
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Nine parties would get into the lower house of parliament. The KDU-ČSL with five percent and TOP 09 and the CSSD, which have both 6.5 percent, are close to the entry limit. Given the potential level of profits and the statistical discrepancy, the three parties have a similar chance of entering the House, the agency noted. In October, the KSČM would vote for seven percent of people and the SPD for 7.5 percent. The tricolor would gain the support of two percent of the people and the Greens 1.5 percent.
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The preferences of the coalition parties, ie YES, the CSSD and the KSCM, are lower in October compared to August. On the contrary, the sum of preferences of the parties of the opposition bloc, which includes the ODS, Pirates, STAN, TOP 09 and KDU-ČSL, strengthened from August to October.
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STAN’s preferences have risen, which, according to the agency, may be related to the success of the regional elections, which took place in early October. In October, the STAN movement would vote for 7.5 percent of people, an improvement of 2.5 points compared to August. According to Median, the share of convinced party voters remains low, so profits may not be stable.
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For the YES movement, the agency does not see a change in terms of support in age groups. There is still massive support among voters over the age of 65. If YES received votes from all voters who are considering voting and do not rule out voting, Median would win 32.5 percent of the vote. A profit of convinced voters would be YES enough for an election result of around 20 percent.
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According to Median’s electoral potential, pirates could get 20 percent of the vote, the ODS 18 percent and STAN 16 percent. The core, ie fixed voters, is seven percent for the Pirates, eight percent for the ODS and three percent for STAN.
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65 percent of people would go to the polls in October. In the last parliamentary elections in October 2017, turnout reached about 61 percent. Certainly 29 percent of respondents would not go to the polls.
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The election model of the Kantar CZ agency published in mid-October showed a profit of 24.5 percent for YES, which was the worst result since the 2017 elections. CZ slightly worsened. Seven political groups have exceeded the five percent threshold required to enter the House.
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