Xi’s Kunming Visit: A Solo Act?

On the morning of March 20, 2025, Xi Jinping, during an inspection tour of Yunnan province, met with military leaders of the Kunming garrison. This visit, reported by state-owned CCTV, is notable for a critical detail: the absence of any members of the Central Military Commission (CMC).

CCTV footage showed wu Yanan, commander of the Southern Theater Command, in attendance. Lieutenant General Fang Yongxiang, believed to be the new director of the General office of the Central Military Commission, was the only high-ranking officer accompanying Xi.

Historically, Xi’s military inspections have always included at least one CMC vice chairman. Such as:

• January 28, 2022: Visit to the Central Theater Command accompanied by Xu Qiliang, Zhang Youxia, Wei Fenghe.
• January 17, 2021: Inspection of the 63650 troops stationed in Yunnan, accompanied by Zhang Youxia.

This deviation from established protocol has sparked intense speculation among analysts, notably within the U.S. intelligence community. The absence of CMC members suggests a potential disruption in the chain of command or, more concerningly, a sign of internal discord within the PLA’s highest echelons.

rumors of Investigations and Power Struggles

Adding fuel to the fire are persistent rumors of investigations targeting key figures within the PLA, most notably He Weidong and Zhang Youxia. He Weidong, a CMC vice chairman and a prominent member of the “Fujian Gang” – a faction with ties to Xi Jinping’s earlier political career – is reportedly under scrutiny for alleged corruption. zhang Youxia, also a CMC vice chairman, has been rumored to be consolidating power, perhaps at Xi’s expense.

These rumors, while unconfirmed, are important because thay point to potential fractures within the PLA’s leadership. As Dr. Vance, a leading expert on Chinese military affairs, explained, “He Weidong is a CMC vice chairman, and he’s considered a member of the ‘Fujian Gang’ within military circles. His potential removal would indicate a significant setback for a faction already struggling to maintain its power.”

The potential downfall of these high-ranking officials could have a ripple effect throughout the PLA, impacting morale and cohesion. “more importantly, these investigations, if confirmed, could signal a wider purge, impacting the PLA’s cohesion and the morale of its officers,” Dr. Vance noted.

Echoes of the Past: the Kunming Garrison and Political intrigue

The Kunming garrison itself has a history steeped in political intrigue. During the Cultural Revolution, the region was a hotbed of factional infighting, and the military played a significant role in maintaining order. The choice of Kunming as the location for Xi’s recent visit, coupled with the absence of CMC members, may be a deliberate signal – a reminder of the Party’s ultimate authority over the military.

For U.S. policymakers, understanding the historical context of the Kunming garrison is crucial. It highlights the PLA’s complex relationship with the Communist Party and the potential for regional power centers to emerge, especially during periods of political instability.

The Broader context: Xi’s Anti-Corruption Campaign and Military Purges

Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign has been a defining feature of his leadership as assuming power in 2012. While ostensibly aimed at rooting out corruption, these purges have also been interpreted as a means of consolidating power and eliminating potential rivals within the PLA.

The scale of these purges has been extensive, with numerous high-ranking officers removed from their posts.This has created a climate of fear and uncertainty within the PLA, potentially undermining its operational readiness. “From an operational standpoint,a military in turmoil is less effective,” Dr. Vance stated. “The purges might also cause difficulties in the modernization process, as they disrupt established lines of command and erode trust.”

The impact of these purges on the PLA’s capabilities is a subject of intense debate among U.S. military analysts. Some argue that the removal of corrupt officials will ultimately strengthen the PLA by improving discipline and efficiency. Others fear that the purges will lead to a loss of experienced personnel and a decline in morale, making the PLA less capable of projecting power abroad.

Implications for the united States

The potential instability within the PLA has significant implications for the United States. A weakened or distracted PLA could lead to miscalculations in sensitive areas such as the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait. As Dr. Vance pointed out, “Historically, military instability often leads to greater caution and unpredictability in foreign policy. When the military is focused on internal issues – whether it’s anti-corruption campaigns or power struggles – it can become less effective in its primary role, which is to project power and defend national interests.”

The U.S. military must be prepared for a range of scenarios, including the possibility of a more assertive or unpredictable China. This requires maintaining a strong military presence in the Indo-Pacific region and strengthening alliances with key partners such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia.

Furthermore, the U.S.intelligence community must closely monitor developments within the PLA to assess the true extent of the internal strife and its potential impact on China’s foreign policy. Accurate and timely intelligence is essential for making informed decisions and deterring potential aggression.

Potential Counterarguments

It is indeed critically important to note that not all analysts agree with the assessment that the PLA is unstable.Some argue that Xi Jinping’s actions are necessary to root out corruption and ensure the PLA’s loyalty to the Communist Party. They contend that a strong and unified military is critical for China’s national security and its ability to project power on the global stage.

These analysts emphasize that the anti-corruption campaign is essential for maintaining the PLA’s discipline and effectiveness.They argue that the removal of corrupt officials will ultimately strengthen the PLA by improving its efficiency and combat readiness.

though, even those who support Xi Jinping’s actions acknowledge that the purges have created a degree of uncertainty within the PLA. The key question is whether the long-term benefits of the anti-corruption campaign will outweigh the short-term costs of the disruption and instability it has caused.

Recent Developments and Practical Applications

In recent months, there have been several developments that shed further light on the situation within the PLA. These include:

• Increased scrutiny of PLA procurement practices, with reports of widespread corruption in the awarding of contracts.
• A renewed emphasis on political loyalty within the PLA,with officers being required to undergo intensive ideological training.
• A reshuffling of personnel in key military commands, with the appointment of officers closely aligned with Xi Jinping.

These developments suggest that Xi Jinping is continuing his efforts to consolidate control over the PLA and ensure its loyalty to the Communist Party. However, they also highlight the ongoing challenges he faces in maintaining stability and cohesion within the military.

For U.S. businesses operating in China, the potential instability within the PLA presents both risks and opportunities.On the one hand, it could lead to increased political uncertainty and a less predictable business surroundings. On the other hand, it could create opportunities for U.S. companies to provide advanced technologies and services to the PLA, provided they comply with all applicable export controls and regulations.

is Xi Jinping Losing Control? Unpacking the PLA’s purges and power struggles

The situation within the PLA is complex and evolving, but one thing is clear: a strong military is essential for both China’s and America’s security. The ongoing purges and power struggles within the PLA raise serious questions about its future capabilities and its role in shaping China’s foreign policy. As the U.S. navigates its relationship with China, it must carefully monitor developments within the PLA and be prepared for a range of potential scenarios.