Chinese President Xi Jinping’s European Tour: A Diplomatic Balancing Act

When Xi Jinping arrived in Italy

A lavish welcome awaited Xi Jinping during his state visit to Italy in 2019. The visit included private tours of Roman landmarks and a dinner serenaded by opera singer Andrea Bocelli. Perhaps the crowning achievement was Italy’s decision to join Xi’s signature Belt and Road infrastructure initiative.

A Shift in European Perceptions

Five years have passed since Xi’s last visit to Europe. During this time, views on China across the continent have undergone a radical shift. The European Union has launched trade probes into China’s wind turbines and its procurement of medical equipment. Offices of Chinese security equipment maker Nuctech have been raided as part of an investigation into subsidies. Recent arrests have also been made in Germany and the United Kingdom over alleged espionage and related crimes linked to China.

Moreover, Italy formally withdrew from the Belt and Road initiative in March, thereby dealing a significant blow to both China and Xi’s leadership.

Mounting Economic Grievances

The developments above are rooted in mounting economic grievances that are pushing the European Union to prepare for a potential major trade confrontation with China. China is increasingly seen as a multi-faceted threat in numerous European capitals, giving rise to concerns about China’s economic influence and global ambitions. Alongside this, China’s deepening ties with Russia in the context of the war against Ukraine have exacerbated these worries.

Noah Barkin, a Berlin-based visiting senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, underscores the divisions within Europe over how fast and far to go in addressing concerns about China, both in economic and security spheres.

An Opportunity for Diplomacy

Xi’s current tour of Europe, with stops in France, Serbia, and Hungary, presents an opportunity for the Chinese leader to mend fences with his critics and assert China’s influence. Macron, France’s President, and Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, both have essential roles to play in the discussions with Xi.

Von der Leyen is leading the EU’s efforts to “derisk” its supply chains and investigate Chinese electric vehicle imports. Macron, for his part, stresses the need to update economic ties with China, citing excess capacity and massive exports to Europe.

Differing Priorities, Complex Dynamics

Observers note that there are divisions within Europe that could favor China and its intentions. France, which is known for its relatively independent stance within the EU, could be receptive to Chinese overtures while seeking to distance itself from the United States. Within this context, Xi may aim to solidify his rapport with Macron, potentially influencing European policies that align with his interests while tightening China’s relationship with France.

On the other hand, Von der Leyen remains focused on finding effective solutions for trade distortions before the EU parliamentary elections in June. Tangible commitments from China on trade and reciprocal market access are necessary to address these concerns.

Key Challenges and Dimensions

The war in Ukraine will be a crucial point of concern during Xi’s European tour. China aims to position itself as a mediator in resolving the Ukraine crisis and strengthening ties with Russia. Meanwhile, European leaders will likely address the issue of China’s exports of dual-use goods to Russia, which are perceived to support Russia’s military activities in the region.

Hungary and Serbia offer Xi a less contentious environment compared to other European capitals. The leaders of these countries have generally welcomed Chinese investment and maintain close ties with China. Moreover, Xi’s visit to Serbia, coinciding with the anniversary of NATO’s bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, could renew Chinese animosity towards NATO, the organization perceived as a representation of American overreach.

The Significance of Chinese Investments

Xi’s visit to Hungary and Serbia provides an opportunity to highlight the investments China has made in these countries. Serbia has seen growing trade and investment ties with China, particularly in the renewable energy sector.

Hungary, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orban, serves as a crucial ally for China in the European Union. The country has attracted investments from Chinese automotive suppliers and has become an important production hub for Chinese firms looking to navigate EU tariffs.

The Conclusion of Xi’s European Tour

Xi’s visit to Europe presents a diplomatic balancing act. While facing growing criticism and concerns in many European capitals, Xi also finds areas of acceptance and opportunity, particularly in Serbia and Hungary. As bilateral discussions unfold, the complex dynamics between European countries and China will shape the outcomes of this significant tour.