Table of Contents
- Unexpected Power Struggle Shakes Xi Jinping’s Authority
- China’s Military Purges Deepen Amidst Economic Turmoil and Geopolitical Uncertainty
- China’s 2025 Crossroads: Taiwan, Instability, and the CCP’s Future
As 2024 concludes, a significant power struggle within the Chinese military is raising serious questions about Xi Jinping’s control. Australian-based scholar Yuan Hongbing, in a recent interview, highlighted the unexpected dismissal of Miao Hua, a member of the Central Military Commission, for “serious violations of discipline” as a key indicator of this internal conflict.
Hongbing’s analysis suggests that this event, far from being an isolated incident, points to a deeper fissure within the ranks of what was previously considered Xi’s loyal “Xi Family Army.” The dismissal of Miao Hua, according to Hongbing, exposes a level of disloyalty that challenges the narrative of complete control Xi had cultivated.
“The most surprising event in 2024 was the subversive power struggle within the Xi family army, especially the sudden dismissal of Miao Hua,” Hongbing stated. He further predicted that in 2025, xi will face an even more precarious situation, characterized by pervasive distrust and a lack of reliable allies. He described this as a worsening phenomenon of “two-faced men,” implying widespread deception and betrayal within his inner circle.
Prior to these recent events, the prevailing view was that Xi had successfully consolidated his power within the military following the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party. However, the ongoing purges, including the dismissals of key figures, paint a different picture, suggesting a far more fragile and contested power base than previously assumed.
The implications of this internal struggle extend beyond China’s borders.The stability of the Chinese military, a key component of global geopolitical dynamics, is now subject to considerable uncertainty.This situation warrants close monitoring by U.S. policymakers and intelligence agencies, as it could have significant ramifications for regional security and international relations.
China’s Military Purges Deepen Amidst Economic Turmoil and Geopolitical Uncertainty
A wave of purges within the Chinese military continues to escalate, reaching into the highest echelons of power, according to expert analysis. The dismissals extend beyond high-ranking officials to encompass armament departments and military industrial enterprises, signaling a significant internal power struggle.
The fall of Miao Hua, suspended on November 28th for alleged “serious disciplinary violations,” marks a pivotal moment in this ongoing upheaval. Sources within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) suggest miao Hua’s downfall stems from political disloyalty, including privately opposing President Xi Jinping’s aggressive stance on Taiwan. “He has said that if a state of war is entered, military power will be transferred down, suggesting that ‘other plans can be made’ by then,” according to insider accounts.
Analyst Yuan Hongbing highlights the significance of Miao Hua’s dismissal, stating that its impact on Xi Jinping surpasses that of previous high-profile military dismissals. “Yuan Hongbing pointed out that the fall of Miao Hua had a far greater impact on Xi Jinping than Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe, and was comparable to the impact of the Lin Biao incident on Mao Zedong,” he noted.
hongbing further predicts a rise in “two-faced people” within the CCP in 2025 – individuals outwardly loyal to Xi Jinping while harboring dissenting views. He foresees increasing isolation for Xi jinping, with a growing lack of trust among his inner circle. “He predicted that xi Jinping would become even more isolated and no one could trust him.”
The economic outlook is equally grim, with Hongbing characterizing 2024’s economic difficulties as a “black rhino incident.” He attributes this to Xi Jinping’s economic policies, which he believes contradict modern economic principles. This, he argues, will exacerbate unemployment, notably impacting the approximately 12 million college graduates this year. “He revealed that there are about 12 million college graduates this year, but the official employment data is seriously flawed, and the actual situation is worrying.”
Hongbing posits that a potential economic war launched by a President Trump management, coupled with a negotiated end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, could severely destabilize China. ”Yuan Hongbing believes that if U.S. President-elect Trump launches an economic war against the CCP and promotes an armistice between Russia and Ukraine, it may disintegrate the Russia-China alliance and even promote a U.S.-Russia strategic alliance,putting the CCP into a geopolitical situation of international isolation. This will become a major ‘major challenge’ faced by the Chinese Communist regime. black swan event.”
The confluence of internal political instability, economic hardship, and potential geopolitical isolation paints a complex and uncertain picture for China’s future.
China’s 2025 Crossroads: Taiwan, Instability, and the CCP’s Future
The year 2025 looms large in geopolitical forecasts, particularly concerning China. Experts predict a period of significant instability for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), potentially impacting relations with Taiwan and the broader global landscape. The coming year is expected to be a critical juncture, with far-reaching consequences.
According to recent analysis, the internal pressures within the CCP, coupled with mounting external pressures, are accelerating a process of internal collapse. This assessment suggests that 2025 will be a year of heightened political turbulence within China itself, demanding close monitoring from international observers.
The situation in the Taiwan Strait is a key element of this forecast. While some analysts believe that 2025 might see a temporary period of relative calm, this is not interpreted as a change in the CCP’s long-term strategic goals regarding taiwan. instead, it’s viewed as a potential lull before a more volatile period.
“Xi Jinping has designated 2025 to 2027 as the window period for launching a war in the Taiwan Strait, but 2026 to 2027 will be the most dangerous period,” one expert noted. “He believes that the situation in the Taiwan Strait may temporarily transition smoothly in 2025, but the CCP’s strategic vision for Taiwan has not changed.”
This assessment highlights the potential for escalating tensions in the region, underscoring the need for continued vigilance and proactive diplomatic efforts. The potential for conflict remains a significant concern, with the period from 2026 to 2027 identified as particularly high-risk.
The implications of this analysis extend beyond the immediate region. The potential for instability within the CCP could have significant ripple effects on global markets, international relations, and the overall balance of power. The United States, along with its allies, is closely monitoring the situation and adapting its strategies accordingly.
the coming year presents a critical juncture for China and the world.The predicted internal struggles within the CCP, combined with the ongoing tensions surrounding Taiwan, create a complex and potentially volatile situation. The international community must remain attentive to developments in China and prepared to respond effectively to the challenges that may arise.
Xi Jinping’s Grip on Power Shaken by Military purge
Political turmoil within the Chinese military is raising serious questions about Xi Jinping’s authority. A recent interview with Australian-based scholar Yuan Hongbing shed light on the unexpected dismissal of Miao Hua, a member of the Central Military Commission, highlighting a deeper fissure within Xi’s inner circle.
Outsider
The Dismissal of Miao Hua: A Sign of Internal strife
Hongbing highlighted the dismissal of Miao Hua for “serious violations of discipline” as a pivotal moment revealing cracks within the once seemingly united “Xi Family Army.” This event, according to Hongbing, points to a level of disloyalty that challenges the narrative of complete control Xi had cultivated.
“The most surprising event in 2024 was the subversive power struggle within the Xi family army, especially the sudden dismissal of Miao Hua,” Hongbing stated. He goes on to predict a precarious situation for Xi in 2025, marked by pervasive distrust and a lack of reliable allies.
A Fragile Power Base: Beyond the Facade
Previously, Xi was perceived to have consolidated his power after the 20th National Congress of the chinese Communist Party. However, ongoing purges, including the dismissal of key figures, suggest a far more fragile and contested power base than previously assumed.
Global Implications: Beyond China’s Borders
the implications of this internal struggle extend far beyond China.The stability of the Chinese military, a key component of global geopolitical dynamics, is now subject to considerable uncertainty. This situation warrants close monitoring by international observers as it could have significant ramifications for regional security and global relations
The Widening Cracks: A Deeper Look at China’s Purges
The wave of purges within the Chinese military continues to escalate, reaching into the highest echelons of power, according to expert analysis. Dismissals extend beyond high-ranking officials to encompass armament departments and military industrial enterprises, signaling a significant internal power struggle.
Miao hua’s sudden downfall, stemming allegedly from political disloyalty and opposition to Xi Jinping’s stance on Taiwan, is seen as a pivotal moment in this ongoing upheaval. “He has said that if a state of war is entered, military power will be transferred down, suggesting that ‘other plans can be made’ by then,” according to insider accounts.
Analysts like Yuan Hongbing emphasize the gravity of Miao Hua’s dismissal, comparing its impact on Xi Jinping to the lin Biao incident in Mao Zedong’s era. Hongbing predicts an increase in “two-faced peopel” within the CCP in 2025 – individuals outwardly supportive of Xi while harboring dissenting views. He also foresees growing isolation for Xi, facing distrust within his own circle.
A troubling Economic Outlook
Adding to Xi’s woes is a bleak economic outlook. Hongbing characterizes 2024’s economic difficulties as a “black rhino incident” – unforeseen and highly disruptive – attributing it to Xi’s economic policies which, he argues, contradict modern economic principles.
This dire economic situation, with potentially alarming unemployment rates, especially impacting recent college graduates, could further destabilize the nation.
Geopolitical Instability: A Perfect Storm
A potential economic war initiated by a future trump administration, coupled with a negotiated end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, could exacerbate China’s woes. Hongbing predicts these developments could destabilize the Russia-China alliance and potentially lead to a US-Russia strategic alliance, effectively isolating the CCP on the global stage. This scenario, he argues, represents a major challenge for the Chinese Communist regime.
The confluence of internal political instability, economic hardship, and potential geopolitical isolation paints a complex and uncertain future for China. The world watches closely as these events unfold, with implications that extend far beyond the country’s borders.
