The global oil market experienced a downturn on Tuesday, January 14, as West Texas Crude Oil (WTI) futures in New York closed negative. This decline followed the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) maintaining its oil demand forecast while increasing the forecast for US oil supply this year. The WTI crude oil contract,set for delivery in February,fell by 1.32 or 1.67%, closing at $77.50 per barrel. Similarly, the Brent crude oil contract (BRENT), scheduled for March delivery, dropped by $1.09 or 1.35%, ending the day at $79.92 per barrel.
The EIA’s latest report on the Short-Term energy Outlook revealed that oil demand in the United States will remain steady at 20.5 million barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026. Simultaneously occurring, US oil production is expected to rise to 13.55 million barrels per day in 2025, slightly higher than the previous forecast of 13.52 million barrels per day.The EIA also predicts that over the next two years, oil prices will face pressure as global oil supply outpaces demand. Brent oil prices are anticipated to drop by 8%, averaging $74 per barrel in 2025, and further declining to $66 per barrel in 2026.Similarly, the average WTI oil price is expected to be $70 per barrel in 2025, dropping to $62 per barrel in 2026.
These forecasts overshadowed positive news from the US, which announced sanctions targeting the Russian oil industry.The sanctions aim to block revenues used for the war against Ukraine, affecting Russian oil companies such as Gazprom Neft and Surgut neftegas, along with 183 tankers previously used to transport Russian oil.
In addition, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that US crude oil inventories fell by 2.6 million barrels in the week ending January 10. Investors are now awaiting the EIA’s official crude stock release, expected later today around 10:30 p.m. Thai time.| Key Oil Price Forecasts |
|—————————–|
| Brent Crude Oil |
| 2025: $74/barrel |
| 2026: $66/barrel |
| WTI Crude Oil |
| 2025: $70/barrel |
| 2026: $62/barrel |
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