/ world today news/ Ukraine‘s attack on PMR will cause a clash between Russia and NATO
The road to a world war passes through Transnistria, said the president of the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic, Vadim Krasnoselski, at a meeting with deputies from the Grigoriopol region.
“Through Transnistria there is a shortcut to world war. If Transnistria intervenes, Moldova will also intervene. It’s natural. We are neighbors. Moldova will intervene, Romania will also intervene, and it is a member of NATO, Romania will intervene and Russia will intervene,” he said.
According to him, the question remains what weapons will be used. He himself believes that if there is a global conflict, the funds will be unlimited.
How seriously can these words be taken? The ongoing escalation over Transnistria has already forced many to accept the inevitability of another conflict there involving Ukraine and Russia, but World War III? Because of Transnistria?
How are we to understand this statement? An attempt to draw the world’s attention to the problems of Transnistria? Or is it aimed at an internal audience? Or is this a signal to Kiev and the West that it is not worth organizing an adventure against Tiraspol?
“This is a statement for everyone,” said Alexander Nemtsev, an associate professor at the Financial University of the Government of Russia.
— “But above all for Moldovan society. Moldovans do not need this war – in this case, their country, like Ukraine, will become a bargaining chip,” he declared.
“Inhabitants of both banks of the Dniester communicate with each other, many cars with Moldovan license plates go to Tiraspol, and with Transnistrian ones – to Chisinau and other cities of Moldova. The rejection of war by both sides is very important and can affect its prevention” , added the expert.
“SP”: Transnistria will intervene, Moldova will also intervene. Moldova will intervene, Romania will intervene, and Russia will intervene. Isn’t it a fantastic scenario?
— No, almost the entire Moldovan ruling elite has Romanian citizenship. They will do whatever their superiors in Bucharest tell them.
This is understood both in Russia and in other countries. Therefore, the option of a global crisis due to the events on the Dniester is quite real, and here Krasnoselski is not exaggerating.
“SP”: NATO and Russia will fight for Transnistria? Is it that important for both sides? Is Transnistria such a serious reason for a world war? Now is not the eve of the First World War, when everyone was just looking for an excuse. The Third World War may be the last, and it is more logical on the contrary – to look for a reason to avoid …
– The situation is much more complicated. In addition to Transnistria, Moldova has Gagauzia. This territory is pro-Russian, but Turkish influence there is significant. I would even say that the Gagauz are under the tutelage of Turkey. The Gagauz, apparently, will not stay out of the conflict.
Moreover, there are results of the referendum, where they refused to even consider the option of joining Romania. Moreover, the strengthening of Bucharest in the zone of their interests is disadvantageous for Turkey.
Therefore, due to this factor, NATO’s direct confrontation option for the map of Moldova has both supporters and interests within the alliance, as well as its opponents.
“SP”: If we are talking about the Third World War in general, what is the probability? Today you can scare each other, talk about how close we got to it, move the hands of the doomsday clock, etc. But does anyone really allow this in reality?
– The Western elites are behaving like a wounded dog. They are in convulsions. Apparently, in their picture of the world, Ukraine should have already returned to the borders of 1991, but everything was thwarted – the attack on Ukraine was prevented thanks to the announcement of a special military operation.
Unprecedented audacity on the part of Russia, which the West still cannot accept. According to them, we must consistently compromise our national interests.
I don’t think they are ready for a full-scale war in Europe, and what is happening in Ukraine scares them. Therefore, they will provoke, but they will not dare to fight for real.
“SP”: In your opinion, if there is a conflict in Transnistria, what will it look like? What will the occasion be and who is ready to fully participate in it?
– The conflict on the banks of the Dniester is beneficial above all to Ukraine. This is necessary for building the internal political situation in Russia. The narrative will be developed: “Here Transnistria was united.”
At the request of Moldova, Ukraine is ready to neutralize the regime in Tiraspol. Why are they in a hurry? They fear that Russia will reach the borders of Moldova, take Odessa under its control, and then the issue will be automatically removed. That’s why they try to solve it earlier.
„PMR President Vadim Krasnoselsky is not one of those politicians who strives to make loud statements to attract attention,” said Igor Shornikov, director of the Transnistrian Institute for Socio-Political Research and Regional Development.
– This emphasis on security issues is rather necessary as not all regional players seem to understand the seriousness of the situation. I think that the main signal is to the West, which is able to influence both Kyiv and Chisinau.
“SP”: Let’s analyze the scenario described by Krasnoselsky. What might a provocation look like that would involve Transnistria and Moldova in the conflict? What could be the role of Ukraine here?
– Provocations can be any kind. An example is the recent situation with the revealed plans for terrorist attacks in Transnistria. In the event of a terrorist act against the OSCE delegation, the responsibility for it will necessarily be transferred first to Tiraspol, and then to Moscow, which, according to the West, is responsible for everything that happens in Transnistria.
After the corresponding publicity in the Western media, the joint invasion of the Moldovan troops and the armed forces of Ukraine in the PMR will now be seen not as an aggression, but as an anti-terrorist operation.
“SP”: Can Moscow intervene at all? We cannot deal with Artyomovsk in any way. How will we break a corridor in Transnistria?
– This is a question for the Russian General Staff, but diplomats have repeatedly stated that an attack on Transnistria will be seen as an attack on Russia.
Minister Sergey Lavrov stressed that Russia has a mandate to guarantee security in the region and Moscow will use it. I believe that Russia has ways to inflict unacceptable damage on the aggressors, otherwise the bad scenarios for Transnistria would have already been realized.
“SP”: Will Romania dare to speak if Russia intervenes? Are they suicides or are they waiting for NATO to fight for them?
– The Romanians categorically do not wish to go to war with Russia, such a clash will end their dream of a Greater Romania, towards which they have been working for the last 30 years with the methods of “soft power” and are already one step away from achieving it.
But Romania is bound by treaties with Moldova and promises to come to the rescue in any development of events. Moreover, Bucharest cannot but obey Washington, and if they are ordered to become mincemeat, then they will not have much choice.
“SP”: Does NATO need this? Are they ready to start a third world war over Transnistria?
– NATO must weaken Russia as much as possible. The past year has shown that Ukraine is clearly not enough for this. How else to cause a power surge? Force Russia to disperse resources in other directions.
There are not so many options here – either opening a second front in Georgia, or thawing the Dniester conflict. Moldova is not yet a member of NATO, which means it is an excellent candidate for war with Russia. True, Moldova’s neutrality still stands in the way. But with the current authorities in Chisinau, this problem is quite surmountable.
It should be understood that in the event of a conflict on the Dniester, the Romanians will not be able to escape, at the first stage they will have to provide military aid and send “volunteers”. And then who knows how events will unfold?
Romania could be directly involved in the conflict. World War III will not start because of Transnistria, but because of Western efforts to expand military operations against Russia.
„Ukraine has demonstrated its readiness to intervene in the situation in Transnistria by building fortifications along the border,” recalls Dmitry Ezhov, an associate professor at the Department of Political Science at the Financial University of the Government of Russia.
– This is a rather dangerous trend, but a new outbreak of conflict is hardly beneficial to the collective West, which is interested in continuing military actions in Ukraine. At least at this stage.
In the future, the situation may develop according to different scenarios. Hypothetically, the opening of a second front in the Moldovan direction through the PMR could lead to undesirable consequences for all countries for one simple reason – Bucharest is interested in the expansion of the Moldovan-Transnistrian conflict to one degree or another, and Romania, as you know, is a NATO country , from whose territory he controls all of Moldova.
Theoretically, Maia Sandu could initiate an amendment to the constitution, invite foreign troops, and then Romania would enter Moldova. In fact, it will lead to the absorption of Moldova by Romania. If such a scenario takes place, it will be possible to talk about the real implementation of another anti-Russian project.
At this stage, however, such a prospect is not obvious. The statements of the head of PMR should be taken as an attempt to draw attention to the possible trajectory of the development of the situation.
Moldova itself is unlikely to decide on any action – the forces of Transnistria, together with the deployed peacekeeping contingent, outnumber the Moldovan army.
Translation: SM
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