Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The issue of the threat of a Russian attack on Ukraine does not seem to have really subsided. Although Russian President Vladimir Putin has confirmed the withdrawal of troops at the border as the end of military exercises Tuesday (14/2/2022), foreign intelligence continues to say the potential for attacks exists.
Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service said Russia was likely to launch a limited military strike. The attack would include the bombardment of missile weapons and the occupation of “main ground” in Ukraine.
“Right now, our assessment is that they will avoid cities with large populations, as it takes a lot of troops to control those areas,” said Mikk Marran, director general of Estonia’s foreign intelligence service. ReutersThursday (17/2/2022).
“But there is no clear understanding of what avenues Russian forces might exploit.”
Chances are, Russia will intensify fighting in the region that is about to break away from Ukraine and is supported by Moscow. As is known today, Russia supports anti-government militias in Eastern Ukraine.
“Such escalation is very possible. And in this way, Russia is likely to get a reasonable denial and avoid sanctions,” said Marran again.
“If Russia is successful in Ukraine, it will push it to increase pressure in the Baltics in the years to come. The threat of war has become a key policy tool for Putin,”
Estonian intelligence alone noted that about 10 combat groups of Russian troops were moving towards the Ukrainian border. In total there are 100 combat groups or about 170,000 troops, including on Belarusian territory.
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