The quadrennial World Cup party is here again. The opening match of this year’s World Cup in Qatar will start at 0:00 on November 21 (next Monday) The first match will be Qatar-Ecuador.
Although the World Cup is a thrilling visual feast for fans around the world, for the capital market, the stock market performance during previous World Cups has often been unsatisfactory. year will come true? ?
The conceptual actions of the World Cup change frequently
The World Cup is approaching and the football concept shares are repeatedly active. Guangdong Media, China Sports Industry, Double Elephant, Aoto Electronics, Rheinland Sports, Xinghui Entertainment, etc. They have changed frequently this month and have attracted the attention of market funds.
Take Guangdong Media, a football lottery concept stock, for example. Since November 16 (this Wednesday), Guangdong Media’s stock price has continued to rise by the limit, and yesterday it rose by the limit again, with an increase weekly rate of 32.18%. According to public information, Guangdong Media is engaged in advertising, sales, printing and series of media operations, and also has the concept of football and sports lottery in the secondary market. Pioneer News, a wholly owned subsidiary of the company, as a sports culture industry of Guangdong Media, has two professional sports newspapers “Football” and “Basketball Pioneer News”, Football + App, Football + Mini Program, Football News Official Weibo, Account official of WeChat Football News and other new media platforms. In addition, Guangdong Media also cooperated with Tianxia Technology to develop the “Cloud Lottery” lottery purchase service platform, covering PCs and mobile terminals, which makes Guangdong Media’s stock price often perform before the start of the Cup of the World this year in Qatar .
Yanjing Beer’s beer business is up more than 25% this month. Yanjing Beer is the fourth largest brewer in China (accounting for 9.5%), and its market share in Beijing, Guangxi, Inner Mongolia and other places exceeds 70%. The company stated that “themed activities have been launched many times during previous World Cups”.
Xinghui Entertainment World Cup concept stock also received attention from market funds in the near future. a strong uptrend channel all along the way . According to public information, Xinghui Entertainment has acquired 99.61% of the shares of Espanyol Football Club and is the first A-listed company to control the top clubs in Europe’s top five leagues.
Will the ‘World Cup Curse’ come true this year?
Veteran shareholders know that there are all kinds of “curses” in the A-share market, such as “curse of two barrels of oil”, “curse of 4.19”, “curse of the 88 fund”, “curse of the meeting of the investment strategy”, etc. it’s the “Curse of the World Cup” we’ll talk about briefly.
So, what exactly is the “World Cup Curse”? It is said that the overall performance of the stock market during the start of the World Cup is generally not very good, and most of them end up in decline.
Taking the A-share market as an example, during the 7 World Cups from 1994 to 2018 (the World Cup is held every 4 years), the A-share market fell 5 times and only rose 2 times, with a 71% probability.
In particular, during the World Cup in the United States in 1994, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 18.3%; during the World Cup in France in 1998, A-shares fell 0.7%; in the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, A-shares fell 0.7%; shares fell 3.6%; in the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, A shares fell by 0.4%; During the 2018 World Cup in Russia, A shares fell by 7.2%. The year A shares soared during the World Cup was the 2002 World Cup in Korea and Japan. The stock also rose 8.7%.
A more popular explanation for the reason for the “curse of the World Cup” is that investors, especially institutional investors (including fund managers and traders), were distracted during the World Cup, resulting in relatively deserted transactions in the market financial. However, the above explanation lacks sufficient rigor. The reason is that there is no strong internal connection between the World Cup and the stock market. In addition, the sample size of the above data is too small. Statistically speaking, conclusions drawn from small samples are often not reliable enough, it is accidental.
Looking at the performance of industrial sectors, while the A-share market as a whole will not do well during the World Cup, some sectors are exceptions, such as sports lotteries, beer and home appliances (large screen TVs). “It is very logical that such a phenomenon appears.” An investment advisor of a related brokerage firm in Hangzhou said, “The most closely related to the World Cup are beer and lottery tickets. However, this year’s World Cup in Qatar is held in a period special in winter, we are in summer, so it remains to be seen how justified it is for the beer industry.”
In addition, Everbright Securities also compiled a list of some listed companies who participated in the World Cup in Qatar extensively, including Hisense Home Appliances, Hisense Video, Skyworth Digital, Gree Electric, Lehman Optoelectronics, Jinggong Steel Structure, Alto Electronics, Fengshang Cultura , Unilumin Technology, Xinghui Entertainment, Zhongtong Bus and other companies. The performance of these listed companies during this year’s Qatar World Cup is also worth waiting for by investors.
