Beef markets around the world are experiencing weaker consumer demand, with the exception of the United Statessuggested Rabobank in its quarterly report on world beef published in recent days replicated by Beef Central.
The report adds that world livestock prices are now divided into two different groups: those of North America and Europey those of the rest of the world. (Read on Livestock context: World beef production to stay the same in 2023: USDA)
on one side, the decrease in the supply of animals y strong US consumer demand for meat is raising the price of cattle. The same has happened in Canada y Europa, where the lower domestic supply of meat has also kept prices high. In contrast, in most other regions, increased supply and lower demand are driving prices lower.
Angus Gidley-Baird, a senior animal protein analyst at Rabobank, said US cattle prices had risen nearly 30% in the past 12 months, while Australian cattle prices had fallen more than 30%.
«This price differential is the largest we have seen in the last ten years.. Such price separation will have consequences for the competitiveness of beef exporters and as a result we expect to see some change in trade volumes,” he stated.
Demand is down almost everywhere and supply chains are full
For its part, the portal Beef Magazine revealed on the same report that in several countries, particularly Asian ones, meat purchases that were made between 2022 and 2023 to anticipate recovery from the pandemic have not been consumed, according to the report. These are now part of increasing levels of cold storage inventories that also include other proteins. “Lower consumer demand is making it difficult to move these volumes through the system,” Gidley-Baird said.
US cattle inventory drawdown continues.
While US pasture conditions have improved compared to last year, Rabobank indicates herd reduction continues. In addition, the supply of beef cattle and calves for fattening is now the lowest since 2014. Over the next 12 months, Rabobank expects even steeper drops in cattle slaughter.
Meanwhile, record beef prices have trickled down to American consumers, which Rabobank says is the result of limited supply as well as historically strong demand. (Read on Livestock context: The key countries and companies in the world meat market in the next 5 years)
“Consumer demand in July decreased by 1% compared to last year, but demand from January to July 2023 remains the fifth highest in the last 30 years», says the report. Still, higher prices will test consumer demand, Rabobank says.
Export demand is also being affected by higher prices, as US beef exports in the second quarter fell 14% compared to last year. «The highest prices of beef in the United States are attracting cheaper meat from Australia, Mexico and Canada and discouraging export business,” he says.
2023-09-01 05:48:56
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