World Bank: The epidemic threatens to cause the global economy to face a “lost decade” | Anue Ju Heng-International Political Economy

According to a report by the World Bank, the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic may worsen the growth of the global economy and cause the future to fall into a “lost decade.” The World Bank also lowered the price for the next few years. Economic growth forecast.

Before the outbreak, the World Bank stated that due to the aging population and declining productivity, it lowered its global economic growth forecast between 2020 and 2029, from the original 2.5% annual growth rate to 2.1%. On Tuesday (5th), the bank once again lowered its economic growth forecast to 1.9% per year.

The World Bank report stated that the main reason for lowering the economic outlook in the next few years is that the uncertainty of the epidemic has led to a decline in trade and investment, and the interruption of education has hindered the increase in labor productivity.

Ayhan Kose, Acting Vice President of Finance and Institutions of the World Bank, said in an interview: “If history is a lesson, unless major reforms are implemented, we believe that the global economy will show disappointing growth results in the next ten years.” He also said: “Policy makers need to take action and take vigorous actions to combat the impact of the epidemic.”

The World Bank also estimates that after the global economy shrinks by 4.3% in 2020, it will grow by 4% this year, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than the forecast in June last year, reflecting the recovery of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the expansion of epidemic prevention restrictions on economic activities. Shock.

In response to emerging markets and developing countries, the World Bank also lowered the economic prospects of these countries from 2020 to 2029, with an estimated average annual growth rate of 3.3%, lower than the 4.0% estimated before the epidemic.

In addition, driven by Chinese data, emerging market economies are expected to grow by 5% in 2021, higher than the previously estimated 4.6%. China is the world’s second largest economy and the only major economy that did not shrink last year. The country’s economic growth rate last year was 2%, and this year it is expected to grow by 7.9%.