Reminiscence within the semiconductor subject is a non-volatile course of and essentially the most well-known is the round inventory. However there’s one department that has been the focus this season, which is the brand new darling of the AI period: HBM, excessive bandwidth reminiscence.
Synthetic intelligence AI has sparked the expansion pattern of the know-how trade in a yr and a half, from NVIDIA, which makes GPU graphics chipsets, to server meeting crops known as “5 Kings of AI”, together with Wistron, Quanta, Inventec , Lite-On, Gigabyte, and high-end elements corresponding to energy provides corresponding to Delta and Shuanghong cooling fashions. Now, this spring wind has lastly hit the reminiscence trade.
Ranging from the second half of 2023, a brand new matter will seem within the semiconductor trade: HBM (Excessive Bandwidth Reminiscence), which is a sort of DRAM (Dynamic Random-Entry Reminiscence) that makes use of 3D stacking to retailer high- create an achievement. working packages and information HBM may be mentioned to be stacked collectively.
In contrast with conventional DRAM, HBM has the benefits of excessive bandwidth, low energy consumption and small measurement. Nevertheless, because of the advanced manufacturing course of and excessive worth, after the technological breakthrough in 2013, it’s not however high-end merchandise are used, and it’s there. not mainstream out there.
Nevertheless, the brand new era of AI chips (GPU/CPU) with excessive computing necessities goals to course of a variety of information in parallel, so it wants excessive computing energy and enormous bandwidth The stronger the computing energy, the quicker the second information processing velocity, and the larger the bandwidth Extra information is obtainable per second.
Gross sales are anticipated to achieve $5 billion in 2025
Trying on the product format, one GPU is provided with a number of HBMs For instance, Huida H100 tremendous chipset is provided with 5 HBMs, and the capability can attain 80GB. In March, Huida launched the B100 and B200 chipsets, which used eight HBM and the capability was revised to 192GB This exhibits that an increasing number of HBM is the pattern sooner or later.
Huida’s major competitor, Superior Micro Units (AMD), MI300 collection, is making an attempt to take the lead when it comes to reminiscence capability willingly.
Robust market demand has fueled the explosion of HBM Market analysis group Gartner predicts that world HBM gross sales will probably be US$2.005 billion in 2023 and double to US$4.976 billion in 2025.
▲ Three heroes dominate the DRAM reminiscence market.
Let off the hearth of rising financial progress, and Taiwanese factories will add glory
From an general perspective, Taiwanese will not be strangers to the DRAM reminiscence trade, because it was one of many pillars of the know-how trade within the 2000s and was supported by well-known corporations corresponding to Nanke, Huaya, Rechip, Powerchip, and Promos.
Nevertheless, standard reminiscence merchandise don’t differ a lot and are extensively utilized in shopper electronics. After a number of rounds of breakups and consolidations, the world’s customized reminiscence trade is now dominated by three main gamers.
Calculated primarily based on gross sales scale, the market shares within the fourth quarter of 2023 (Desk 1) are 45.5% for SK hynix, 31.8% for Samsung, and 19.2% for Micron of the US information grows and ‘ decline barely every season.
DRAM is a well-known “growth bike inventory” in 2020, fueled by the epidemic and the stay-at-home financial system, there was an surprising rise Nevertheless, it overreacted to the “future shopping for market” , forcing it to enter a protracted and tough “reckoning interval” starting within the second half of 2022. . At the moment, the down cycle was anticipated to be longer, however an enormous wave of AI appeared in 2023, which expanded a brand new demand for HBM in 2024, and once more unexpectedly made HBM a turning level on this improve .
SemiAnalysis information exhibits that HBM’s present place is about 73% of SK Hynix, 22% of Samsung, and 5% of Micron, which presently leads, can also be the quickest and most energetic among the many three.
“To provide a brand new era of HBM, we determined to take a position US$3.87 billion in R&D and manufacturing to construct a sophisticated packaging plant in Indiana, USA.” SK Hynix introduced in March that capital expenditure will probably be directed to HBM’s manufacturing capability. CEO Kwak Noh-Jung mentioned the manufacturing unit will begin mass manufacturing of recent HBM within the second half of 2028 to steer the worldwide AI semiconductor provide chain.
To not be outdone, Samsung’s DRAM chief modified its product strains and elevated Samsung’s HBM manufacturing capability, Hwang Sang-Joong, that Samsung’s HBM manufacturing capability is anticipated to extend 2.9 instances a yr.
Micron, the third oldest firm, has additionally been blessed by HBM tons of of thousands and thousands of {dollars} for Micron this fiscal yr.
The reminiscence trade is in a state of glory Though Taiwanese producers can not get the sweetest half, the trade can also be turning up. For instance, main Taiwanese DRAM producers Winbond Electronics and Nanya Expertise have acquired some excellent news just lately.
Winbond’s working revenue within the first quarter of 2024 was NT$20.12 billion, an annual improve of 14.9%. Basic Supervisor Chen Peiming believes that the manufacturing capability allocation of the three main producers will probably be modified to HBM and won’t be positioned on the comparatively aggressive DDR3 and DDR4 till the third quarter, or barely briefly provide, which can assist A ‘ have a look at the worth motion, “it’s useful for Winbond, which makes use of DDR3 as its major product.”
As well as, Nanya Expertise additionally made good good points. resume regular manufacturing. ” Li Peiying, basic supervisor of Nanya Expertise, confirmed from his personal monetary perspective that the reminiscence trade has a spring wind, which has been declining for a very long time.
Nanya Expertise’s working revenue within the first quarter of 2024 was NT$9.503 billion, a quarterly improve of 9.2% and an annual improve of 48%. gross sales additionally elevated.
▲ Bandwidth reminiscence income is anticipated to achieve US$20 billion in 2024.
“The DRAM market is anticipated to keep up a gradual restoration in 2024.” Li Peiying mentioned that from the angle of market provide and demand, on the provision aspect, the three main DRAM producers have elevated their current manufacturing capability shift to HBM merchandise, and has additionally moved nearer to HBM when it comes to new capital spending. Subsequently, the discount in regular DRAM manufacturing will assist digest the stock of the earlier plateau interval, and permit the flaming costs to recuperate, decreasing the dilemma.
As well as, Licheng Expertise, a reverse manufacturing firm, has additionally acquired HBM packaging orders from Japanese prospects. Cai Dukong, chairman of PowerCheng, mentioned that PowerCheng has been concerned in superior packaging know-how for greater than ten years and might now apply it to HBM, particularly at this stage, wafers develop into thinner and require finer grinding fabs.
It’s value noting that TSMC, which focuses on logic manufacturing, has additionally constructed a wave of peripheral enterprise alternatives underneath the rise of HBM, particularly the combination of through-hole silicon TSV know-how and superior CoWoS packaging know-how.
SK Hynix, presently the chief in HBM, introduced a brand new collaboration with TSMC in mid-April to speed up the progress of recent HBM merchandise HBM4, the sixth era HBM product, is anticipated to place into manufacturing in 2026.
The manufacturing degree must be damaged by way of, and the market scenario remains to be tough to say.
HBM has a brilliant future, however aren’t there challenges? “The most important motive why HBM is brief is the manufacturing fee,” mentioned TrendForce analyst Wang Yuqi, usually it’s estimated that the manufacturing fee is just about 50 to 60%, which is nearly a state of two unhealthy, as a result of not solely should or not it’s stacked, however should even be added Stress, in order that the full top may be linked to different chips. ”However the weight should be positioned up and down on the identical time, and to keep up steadiness. If the steadiness is unbalanced, the chip will probably be broken.”
“HBM is a brand new stimulus for the trade, and it is usually an excellent stimulus,” Wang Yuqi analyzed up to now, new merchandise and new applied sciences broke the distribution framework This time HBM additionally has the identical impact to attain, however this wave pushed by AI a lot. “The event of AI know-how and the velocity of market execution, are they on the identical tempo? It’s essential for the event of HBM sooner or later.”
(This text is written by imaginative and prescient journal Reprinted with permission; supply of first picture:SK hynix)
2024-05-25 02:34:27
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