Europe at a Crossroads: Will America’s Back Disappear?
A shadow hangs over Europe. The U.S., its transatlantic partner for decades, may be pulling back. Donald Trump, known for his "America First" rhetoric, is poised for a return. Should he reclaim the White House, European security faces a perilous future.
With Trump’s potential presidency comes the real possibility of diminished American military aid to Ukraine. This could be devastating for the war-torn country, but also for the rest of Europe. The continent remains exposed to the threat of a revanchist Russia. Discontent with Europe’s contribution to the alliance has been brewing in the U.S. for years, a simmering frustration that Europe itself has done little to quell.
Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine should have been a wake-up call. Instead of stepping up to protect its own backyard, Europe once again relied on American leadership. Now, that dependence could cost dearly.
European leaders are facing a stark reality: they cannot wait for the U.S. to forever shoulder the burden. They must act decisively to secure their continent. This means ramping up economic and military support for Ukraine, building a unified European defense industry, and demonstrating to the U.S. that Europe is a capable partner. From this point forward, Europe’s security depends on the continent’s own resolve.
The Burden of History
Since World War II, the U.S. has viewed European security as a vital national interest. A stable, democratic Europe allows the U.S. to project its power globally.
The partnership has been more than just strategic; it’s been rooted in shared values – a commitment to democracy against dictatorship. The Cold War further deepened the transatlantic bond. NATO, formed in 1949, provided an American security umbrella that allowed Europe to rebuild and flourish. The economic and military partnership became a resounding success.
But with the end of the Cold War and the rise of American global dominance, complacency set in on both sides of the Atlantic. Peace and prosperity bred a dangerous sense of security.
European militaries were restructured to focus on foreign interventions, neglecting their capacity for homeland defense. The U.S., meanwhile, became entangled in costly conflicts in the Middle East. Both sides ignored rising threats.
Around a decade ago, Russia and China began challenging the U.S.-led world order. Russia annexed Crimea and launched a war in eastern Ukraine in 2014. Xi Jinping, upon ascending to power in China in 2012, overhauled his country’s economic and foreign policies, positioning China as an equal to the U.S.
Western countries, on the other hand, grappled with the negative consequences of globalization. Economies struggled, social cohesion eroded, and political discontent surged.
"Trumpism" and the Future of Europe
Trump, effectively tapping into public anger over American military spending abroad, vowed to put "America First" and demand allies "pay up."
European leaders, hoping that Trump’s unsettling rhetoric was an aberration, held onto the belief that they could simply wait him out. They were wrong.
While Joe Biden’s administration temporarily prioritized European security in response to the Ukraine war, this was an exception not the rule. Few U.S. leaders share Trump’s radical willingness to withdraw from Europe. But the underlying sentiment – that Europe needs to take greater responsibility for its own defense – resonates.
"No turning back" as the headline suggested:
The clock is ticking for Europe. Trump has repeatedly called for halting U.S. military aid to Ukraine. Europe must prepare to manage a major conflict on its own soil for the first time since World War II.
There’s an even greater risk: Trump could strike a deal with Putin to freeze the fighting. Putin understands that once Trump enters negotiations, he will be under pressure to secure a deal.
This imbalance empowers Putin, leading to an unsettling outcome. Any deal would likely fall short of providing adequate protection for Ukraine – and Europe – against future Russian aggression. A deal that essentially accommodates Putin’s war aims would severely damage NATO’s credibility, shaking the foundations of Europe’s security architecture.
Building Capacity, Securing the Future
Europe has the economic strength to ensure its own security. With a combined GDP ten times that of Russia, the question remains: why the lack of political will?
That absence of resolve is most glaring in terms of Ukraine’s military support.
North Korea, a technologically stagnant nation, is estimated to have supplied more artillery shells to Russia during the past year than the entire EU. This dismal state of affairs highlights Europe’s dependence on the U.S.
Europe needs to step up its defense capabilities, and it needs to do so quickly.
Poland, the Baltic states, and the Nordic countries are taking the lead. They are trying to bring together leading European NATO states to improve coordination on Ukraine and increase support for Kyiv.
Germany, however, remains crucial to this effort. Its new government will need to significantly invest in Europe’s security if its continent is to stand a chance against global challenges.
Increased support for Ukraine is crucial.
German, French, and UK aid pales in comparison to the United States.
Once again, Europeans must turn to international markets, even the U.S., to acquire weapons systems and ammunition. Germany needs to take decisive steps it has delayed too long: sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine and lifting restrictions on Kyiv using Western armaments for strikes deep inside Russia.
In the medium to long term, Europe needs to overhaul its defense industry. The continent’s reliance on foreign arms manufacturers must end.
A credible security provider must be able to meet its own defense needs. Europe’s leading military powers – France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the UK – must cooperate on a joint European defense strategy.
Can Europe Stand Alone?
Failure to prioritize defense will leave Europe vulnerable to Russian aggression. U.S. relations will also strain.
The aim should be to retain the U.S. as a security partner. But Europe can achieve this only by becoming a more responsible partner itself. This involves both proactively engaging Washington and discussing shared goals.
Europe also needs to address threats beyond its borders. China, Iran, and North Korea are supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine. China, watching the West’s reaction with a keen eye, may see Russia’s invasion as a blueprint for attacking Taiwan.
Europe and the U.S. cannot afford to address these threats in isolation. The liberal international order, with the U.S. at its core, may not survive without cooperative action.
Europe faces a crucial test.
Its failure to prioritize defense could have dire consequences. A resurgence of war in Europe is a real possibility. The only way forward is for Europe to heal its divisions and emerge as a credible security actor – not just for its own sake, but for the future of the entire world.
