This is one of the consequences of the war in Ukraine: inflation is racing. In March, it was 4.5% at an annual rate according to theInsee and this rate could rise to 6.5% at the end of the year, according to the Asterès economic consultancy. This figure and its corollary, purchasing power, are at the heart of the concerns of voters and therefore of the presidential campaign.
On the business executive side, according to the BDO-OpinionWay monthly barometer for Challenges, 53% of SME and ETI bosses believe that the rise in prices will be the highlight of the next twelve months, an opinion up 21 points. “A distinction will be created between companies that can afford to pass on the increase in raw materials to the end consumer and those that will have to cut their margins”, analyzes Laurent Tardif, president of the Federation of Electrical, Electronic and Communication Industries. (Fieec).
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The black pessimism of households
The monthly economic barometer Odoxa-Abeille Assurances-Challenges-BFM (1) turns bright red with a net indicator – confidence minus mistrust – negative of 54 points, a plunge of almost 20 points. These pessimistic regions have already been explored, since the indicator was frozen at 74 points below zero in 2020, at the heart of the health crisis. But according to Gaël Sliman, president of Odoxa, “for the first time since the creation of this barometer, sixteen years ago, the morale index plunges instead of soaring as the presidential election approaches”.
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The repercussions of the war are so worrying that the French see the results of the candidate president with a very dark prism. Even its action against unemployment, the rate of which rose from 9.5% to 7.4% during the five-year term, is considered negative by 57% of them. And for purchasing power, the dissatisfaction score climbs to 78%. Whatever the outcome of the election, respondents are not expecting a miracle. They are 73% to judge that 2022 will be “a year of economic difficulties”, while they were only 42% to share this point of view in January.
Knife stroke in the recovery for businesses
A delivery blocked in Odessa, a shortage of pallets from Ukraine, gas and electricity bills which are panicking… This boss of a French industrial group has dark circles under his eyes and he cannot hold back yawns recurring. “There is nothing to sleep at night, he explains. Business leaders are faced with a multi-parameter dashboard that is agitated in all directions. The effects of the war in Ukraine have thus plunged many bosses into managing daily life in a gaseous state.
“We are facing crazy uncertainties, launches David Soulard, general manager of Gautier furniture, manufactured in Vendée. This afternoon, we are going to try to set up a budget by September, with my purchasing director. I do not rule out a pessimistic scenario, where we would be forced to slow down production, if our supplier prices continue to climb by 15 to 20%, because by affecting our own selling prices, we would risk losing lots of potential customers.
Read alsoWhy Made in France manufacturers are worried – Challenges
Unsurprisingly, these new difficulties weigh on the morale of the bosses. According to the BDO-OpinionWay-barometerChallenges of the confidence of SMEs and ETIs, the latter fell from 76% to 36% in March concerning the outlook for the French economy in six months. For the international economy, the indicator collapsed from 69% to 27%, unheard of since December 2020. As for hiring intentions, the net balance remains positive, but they are tending to dwindle.
And the various prospective studies will not serve as Prozac for leaders. The Asterès firm agitates the hypothesis of a cumulative loss, for the French economy, of 29,000 jobs, 2.5 billion in added value and nearly 890 million euros in taxes and charges if, by chance, the exports to the conflict zone fell by 50% in 2022.
An “absorbable” shock
Allianz’s research service is no more reassuring. In note entitled “Russian dolls”, it points to the risks of a 20% impact on the operating result (Ebitda) of the metallurgical groups and the energy sector, which are the most exposed. But the same fate awaits the automotive, machine tool and household equipment industries if supply price inflation continues to soar by 50% to 70%. Until producing, by snowball effect, a fall of 1.2 to 2.3 points of GDP for the euro zone.
This stroke of the penknife in the post-Covid recovery would however remain localized, want to believe some observers. “This shock is absorbable, puts into perspective Pierre-Edouard Batard, managing director of the national confederation of Crédit Mutuel. Because the financial situation of companies is today generally healthy, in particular thanks to the loans guaranteed by the State distributed by the banks. .”
Even more serene analysis by the administrators and legal representatives. “The tsunami of bankruptcies announced since the start of the first confinement will not be triggered by the war in Ukraine, assures Frédéric Abitbol, who chairs the national council of the profession. The crisis is not systemic, it is one of those events which cross the life of companies and to which the vast majority of leaders will be able to adapt.” At the cost, however, of a few sleepless nights and dark circles that are getting longer.
Methodology:
(1) Survey carried out on March 29 and 30, 2022 with a representative sample of 1,005 French people.
(2) Survey carried out from March 14 to 25, 2022 with a sample of 300 business leaders generating between 15 and 500 million euros in annual turnover.
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