With the chances of leaving Qatar…what is left for Hamas?

The Palestinian movement Hamas has been under constant pressure since the start of the war in Gaza, more than a year ago, which resulted in a severe blow to the movement, to its leaders and infrastructure, with the failure of the negotiations to stop put on war then came the recent reports that Qatar is moving to close its office in Doha, raising questions about what is left to move.

Historically, the movement’s headquarters moved between Amman, Damascus, and Doha, and at each station, the movement faced challenges that led to the closure of its offices in Jordan and Syria, before moving to Qatar with the chances of leaving the latter. the movement was left with only a small presence and support from Yemen, Algeria, and some… Iraqi groups.

The Turkish-Palestinian expert, Taha Odeh Oglu, says that the movement will face big challenges if the news about leaving Qatar is confirmed.

It should be noted that Doha has not officially confirmed this. While several media reports quoted diplomatic officials as saying that Qatar is moving to close the Hamas political office because “it no longer serves its purpose,” a Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman confirmed that the reports that are “erroneous”.

Odeh Oglu pointed out in statements to the Al-Hurra website that Hamas will try as much as possible to withstand these pressures, especially since it has a pressure card, namely the “prisoners”, who will try it to benefit, in the coming days and weeks.

But the survival of the leaders abroad, according to Odeh Oglu, who is of Palestinian origin, is the main dilemma he will face, especially with the uncertainty of the current outlook regarding dealing international to the movement after a new administration came in. United States.

According to the research center “IntelliGex”The move now has three possible paths: stay in Qatar, part of it, or leave completely.

The most prominent of these destinations is Algeria, which has had good relations with Hamas since 2016, and has an official representative office for the head of Hamas, Muhammad Othman, as well as the residence of the leader, Sami Abu Zuhri. , in Algiers. In addition, Hamas has close ties to the Algerian Movement for a Peace Society, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood.

In Yemen, the movement has links going back to the time of its former president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, who led the 2008 mediation for Palestinian reconciliation.

After the fall of Saleh’s rule, the movement maintained close relations with the Houthi group, which has an office for the movement in Sanaa.

The Houthis are launching attacks targeting shipping traffic in the Red Sea, which they say supports the Palestinians in Gaza.

With an international coalition led by the United States launching raids targeting Houthi sites in Yemen, books The leader of the Houthi group, Muhammad Al-Bukhaiti, said in May last year: “Sanaa is honored to host the political office of the Hamas movement, regardless of the consequences, and even if it closes the heavens on the earth.”

Al-Bukhaiti linked his comment on the “X” platform to an article published by Reuters, saying “Qatar may close the Hamas office as part of an investigation into its mediation in the war.”

In 2021, the representative of the Hamas movement in Yemen, Moaz Abu Shamala, met with a member of the Supreme Political Council of the Houthis, Muhammad Ali Al-Houthi, and gave him the shield of Hamas, in recognition of his “efforts to support two. the Palestinian cause and support the front in particular.”

Last August, the Prime Minister of the Houthi government, Ahmed Al-Rahwi, together with several ministers, visited the office of the Hamas movement in Sana’a, and said: “This visit increases our confidence and stability, as you are of us and we of you in this unfair battle.” Abu Shamala said, “This good meeting is the result of friendship between Hamas and Ansar Allah (Houthis).

As for Iraq, it does not maintain official relations with the movement, but the leaders of the movement usually suggest that Iraq refused to normalize relations with Israel, and some groups have sent announcements that – out about the desire to hold an office for the movement in Baghdad.

Last May, the Shiite coordination framework spoke of talks between Iraq, Iran, and Hamas to consider the option of moving the leadership of Hamas to Baghdad.

In September, a New York Times reporter reported, “Iraqi government officials quietly allowed Hamas and the Houthi movement to establish a permanent presence in Baghdad,” after years of visits by representatives of both movements to key Iraqi city.

The report said there are no signs of a Hamas political office in the Iraqi capital, and the same is true for the Houthi group’s office, which is located within driving distance of the Hamas office.

But an Iraqi government spokesman said the news was “erroneous.”

The Intelligex report said that Lebanon is another possible destination, noting that it includes an official representation of Hamas, and that several of its important leaders live there, including Osama Hamdan and Khalil Al-Hayya, as well as military leadership and organizational centers for the movement in Palestinian camps.

Hamas also has a close relationship with the Islamic Group, the Lebanese branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, and has an extensive network of relations with Hezbollah, which makes Lebanon an option, according to the same source.

The analyst Odeh expects that the relationship between Hamas, Algeria, and the Houthis in Yemen will continue in the coming period.

In the short term, Raphael Cohen, an American expert who specializes in Middle East affairs, expects that Hamas’ relations with these countries will continue, since most of them are in the orbit of Iran and as part of the “axis of resistance. “

But in the long run, Cohen predicts in his statements to the Al-Hurra website that the relationship will become more strained for two reasons: The first is that Israel will continue to pursue Hamas members regardless wherever they are, and this will be easier if they are. outside Qatar.

The second reason is that the incoming Trump administration will put pressure on countries that maintain relations with Hamas and other Iranian proxies, which will pressure them to distance themselves from the movement.

Palestinian analyst Ashraf Al-Akka said in statements to the Al-Hurra website that Hamas wants to repeat the experience of the Fatah movement in the 1980s, when the PLO left Beirut for Tunisia, which “influenced the struggle Palestine.”

The only way out, according to Al-Akka, is “to return to accept the PLO and accept a national path for the issue, after the past months of war have led to the destruction of the Gaza Strip and a negotiated path on failure, which necessitated the Palestinian effort to rebuild the Gaza Strip.”

This, according to Al-Akka, “requires Hamas’s real awareness of the nature of the changes and making major concessions for the sake of the Palestinian cause.”

He said, “The only option is to give authority to the Palestinian leadership and fully accept the Palestine Liberation Organization logo and the Arab mantle to get out of this blockade in the Gaza Strip.”

He said: “There are Arab and international movements to stop the war. Hamas must understand the nature of the changing conditions and be part of the overall Palestinian situation.”