With or without Sanna Marin as prime minister, is Finland joining NATO?

• Thom Edinger

  Foreign editor

• Rolien Creton

  correspondent Scandinavia

“It says a lot that people feel uncomfortable about a Finnish woman in a burqa.” It was the reaction of Laura Jokela of the radical right-wing party De Finnen to the criticism she received because of her election advertisement. In it she had herself photographed in a burqa, with the text ‘East Helsinki: as if you were going abroad’.

Tomorrow the people of Finland will go to the polls for a new parliament. Jokela’s party leads the polls together with the social democrats of Prime Minister Sanna Marin and the liberal-conservative Coalition Party. Just now that Finland is seeking further international cooperation due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with the application for NATO membership as the peak for the time being, a nationalist party is scoring well with the population.

The Finns do this mainly by focusing on domestic issues, says political journalist Marko Junkkari of Helsingin Sanomat, Finland’s largest newspaper. “Although Finland has one of the lowest migration rates in Europe, the party warns about the consequences of migration.”

For example, the party uses the recent gang violence in Helsinki to point to neighboring Sweden. There, violence by gangs with members with a migration background played a major role during the recent elections. Although there were no more than a few incidents in Helsinki, the party’s message is clear: ‘Watch out, don’t go the way of Sweden’.

Junkkari: “Several politicians have been convicted in the past for making racist remarks, including in parliament. That is why Marin accuses the party of open racism and excludes it as a possible coalition partner.”

But contrary to what the advertisement of the radical right-wing Jokela suggests, the focus in this election is mainly on the economy. Recently, the government of Marin has had to deal with the covid pandemic and the war in Ukraine, which has put a heavy burden on the national debt. Other parties promise to keep a better budget.

Dissatisfaction with inflation and increased energy prices has been converted by the radical right-wing De Finnen into electoral support. Not least thanks to party leader Riika Purra, who conceals the party’s controversial sides in her appearances on television and in debates.

The no-nonsense rhetoric of Purra and her fellow party members appeals to many Finns, including young people. The party is especially popular on TikTok. It criticizes, among other things, the transition to a green economy as an elitist affair.

Whichever party becomes the largest, a coalition will have to be formed. Majority coalitions are the norm in Finnish politics. The exclusion of De Finnen by Marin in advance only makes the elections more exciting. “It was probably a tactical choice by Marin, in the hope that people would ignore the populist party if they were excluded beforehand,” says journalist Junkkari.

But now that that seems to have no effect on the popularity of the populists, Marin may well break up badly. “Marin is also very popular in her own country. But she has few choices for a coalition.”

Continuing with the current coalition led by the Social Democrat Marin is not an option. The agricultural Center Party no longer wants to cooperate with the Greens. And so Marin’s options are dwindling rapidly. A situation like in Sweden, where a populist party lends tolerant support to a centre-right cabinet, seems unlikely. Junkkari points out that Finland has little experience with minority governments.

That could pave the way for another option, without Marin’s party. “Because the Liberal-Conservative Coalition Party does not rule out cooperation with the populists,” says Junkkari. “In that respect, they have the most opportunities to form a majority government.” And so it is possible that Finland opts for NATO membership among the Marin, also popular in its own country, but will eventually join without her.