With house price growth declining, is Ireland headed towards negative growth?

The housing market in Ireland has been one of the most talked about economic topics in recent years. After experiencing a devastating crash in 2008, house prices have been slowly but steadily increasing. However, recent reports have shown that house price growth in Ireland is beginning to slow down, and many are beginning to wonder whether this trend will continue and turn negative. In this article, we will examine the factors that are contributing to this slowdown in house price growth and whether it’s a sign of things to come.


The Irish property industry is relying on the idea of Irish exceptionalism, claiming that the shortage of supply will prevent a housing market crash. This means that higher interest rates will not have enough of an impact on prices to cause a reversal like those in other countries such as the UK, United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. However, recent figures from the Central Statistics Office show a monthly decrease of 0.6% in January, with an annual inflation rate of 6.1%, down from 7.7%. It is important to note that these figures predate recent mortgage rate hikes and the planned hikes from the European Central Bank. Some analysts believe the industry is underestimating the effect of higher interest rates, and that prices will soon correct themselves. Higher rates will make property less affordable, and prices may need to fall by up to 30% to maintain affordability.


As Ireland’s economy continues to evolve, the housing market seems to be reaching a plateau. With house price growth on a downward trend, many are left wondering what the future holds for this once-booming industry. While it’s impossible to accurately predict what will happen, it’s clear that changes are on the horizon. Whether the market will turn negative, plateau, or continue to improve in the coming years is unknown. However, one thing is certain- homeowners, investors, and realtors alike should remain vigilant and cautious as the housing market in Ireland navigates these unchartered waters.