August 31, 2024, 1:31 a.m. ET
NEW YORK — Another day, another surprise at the U.S. Open.
Just 24 hours after Carlos Alcaraz’s early exit from the tournament, defending champion and No. 2 seed Novak Djokovic lost to No. 28 seed Alexei Popyrin, 6-4, 6-4, 2-6, 6-4, in the third round on the same court.
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Coming into the prime-time match Friday at Arthur Ashe Stadium, few thought the 25-year-old Australian had a chance against Djokovic, who was seeking a record 25th major title and coming off Olympic gold in Paris. They had met twice at majors this season — the Australian Open and Wimbledon — and Popyrin had failed to prevail in either match.
But Friday was different.
Perhaps still riding high on his maiden Masters 1000 title win at the Canadian Open earlier this month, and buoyed by his 50 winners on the night and Djokovic’s poor serve, Popyrin played the best match of his career.
“It’s incredible because I’ve reached the third round about 15 times and I’ve never managed to reach the fourth,” Popyrin said on court after the match. “To be able to do it against the greatest of all time is incredible. It’s a great feeling and the hard work has paid off.”
>>>> Novak Djokovic was defeated in the third round of the US Open on Friday, his first loss in the tournament since 2006. Sarah Stier/Getty Images
Djokovic, who underwent knee surgery in June, later described his performance as “horrendous” and said it was “one of the worst matches” he had ever played. The 37-year-old admitted he felt drained after an intense summer schedule, which saw numerous surface changes.
“I spent a lot of energy to win the gold, and I came to New York not feeling fresh, not feeling physically,” Djokovic said. “But since it was the US Open, I took my chance and I did my best. I didn’t have any physical problems. I was just out of energy, you know, and you could see it in the way I played.”
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Djokovic officially ended his Grand Slam season without a title for the first time since 2017. It is the first season that a member of the Big Three (Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer) has not won a major trophy since 2002.
And the tournament is now the only Grand Slam not to have a No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the men’s round of 16 for more than 22 years.
Needless to say, the first week in Queens was a surprise, and with two of the favorites eliminated, the men’s title is up for grabs. So who has the best chance of lifting the trophy heading into matchday six? Given the way this tournament has started, it could be a tough call, but we’ll give it a try anyway. (And yes, we acknowledge that the top half of the bracket has yet to play their third-round matches.)
>>>> Jannik Sinner is now in prime position to win his second Grand Slam title. Fatih Aktas/Anadolu via Getty Images
Next match: Third round against Christopher O’Connell (Saturday)
The world number one was considered one of the favourites heading into the tournament, alongside Alcaraz and Djokovic, but the news of his two positive tests for a banned substance in March led to intense scrutiny and it was unclear how he would fare in the circumstances. Sinner, 23, lost the first set of his first-round match against Mackenzie McDonald but otherwise comfortably reached the third round and his game was largely unaffected by the off-court chatter.
Sinner has never made it past the quarterfinals in New York, but he is the reigning Australian Open champion and won the title in Cincinnati earlier this month in his final preseason tournament. He is one of the best on hard courts today and capable of beating any player still in contention.
Next match: Third round against number 31 Flavio Cobolli (Saturday)
The 2021 US Open winner, who is the only one left in the draw, came into the tournament somewhat under the radar after poor results in Montreal and Cincinnati and without winning a title all season. However, the crowd favorite has dropped just one set en route to the third round and is expected to defeat Cobolli in their first career meeting. Nuno Borges or Jakub Mensik would await him in the round of 16.
Medvedev, 28, would likely face Sinner in the quarter-finals and it’s hard to think anyone has a better chance of beating the world number one than Medvedev. A three-time US Open finalist, he certainly has experience on his side and thrives under Ashe’s spotlight in front of a cheering crowd.
The winner of this presumed match would immediately become the favorite.
>>>> Frances Tiafoe has already reached the semifinals of the US Open. Will he be able to go further this year? Mike Stobe/Getty Images
Next match: Fourth round against number 28 Alexei Popyrin (Sunday)
As you’ve probably heard, no American has won a major title since the 2003 U.S. Open. But did you see what Tiafoe did against fellow American Ben Shelton in the third round on Friday? After five sets and more than four hours of play, Tiafoe dug deep and found an answer to Shelton’s powerful serve. By the end of the match, the 26-year-old became the first American since Andre Agassi (2001-05) to reach the round of 16 at the tournament in five consecutive seasons.
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An electrifying showman who thrives in front of the biggest crowds and on the biggest stages, Tiafoe is as beloved a player in New York as he is and will have the fans firmly behind him in every match he plays. He has made it clear that the US Open is his top priority – he even skipped the Olympics this summer to better prepare for the surface. He reached the final in Cincinnati and the semifinals of the 2022 US Open. With Djokovic out of the running, Tiafoe’s path to the quarterfinals – and beyond – has become much easier and no one wants it more than he does. When asked if an American could end the tournament drought, he said it was “kind of a ‘why not?’ question.” So why not Tiafoe?
Next match: Fourth round against number 8 Casper Ruud (Sunday)
Let’s start with the obvious: Ruud, the 2022 US Open finalist, won’t be an easy opponent and this match could certainly swing either way. But, like Tiafoe, Fritz will have the support of his home crowd and the added motivation of wanting to end his winless streak at a major tournament – something he says has motivated him.
Not to mention, he’s had an incredible season and a great first-week showing. He’s reached the round of 16 at every major this year — becoming the first American since Agassi to do so in a single season — and has won two titles in 2024, in addition to capturing Olympic bronze in doubles. Fritz, 26, hasn’t dropped a set in three matches and had a particularly impressive second-round win over former Wimbledon finalist Matteo Berrettini. He’s reached four major quarterfinals in his career, including the 2023 US Open, but has never advanced past the round. To quote Tiafoe, who could potentially face Fritz in the semifinals, “Why not?”
Next match: Fourth round against number 9 Grigor Dimitrov (Sunday)
There were several contenders for that final spot, including Popyrin, Ruud, Dimitrov and American Tommy Paul, but it was ultimately Rublev who was chosen. After a somewhat confusing season, the 26-year-old finally seems to be back on track and has been playing some top-quality tennis on the surface this summer. He made the final in Montreal and the quarterfinals in Cincinnati, and found a way to win in New York despite some struggles.
Despite winning his first and third round matches in three sets, he found himself down two sets in the second round against Arthur Rinderknech. But Rublev fought back and fought his way to victory. It was only the second victory of his career after being down two sets to none, and the first in nearly four years. A quarterfinalist at major tournaments ten times, including four times at the US Open, Rublev has never made it out of the round of 16.
If he can overcome a resurgent Dimitrov on Sunday, the winner of Tiafoe-Popyrin awaits him. It seems likely that at some point he will find a way to reach the semi-finals (or beyond) and he might just recognise that this is his best chance yet and take advantage of it.
