In 2024, for the first time in history, the United States will spend more to pay interest on its public debt than to finance its defense. It’s not a good sign. The next American administration will have a lot to do domestically. It is unthinkable for the EU to remain inert unless at the price of weakening all governments and economies, with the risk of slipping into a mosaic of nationalism and protectionism
In 2024, for the first time in history, the United States they will spend more to pay interest on their public debt than to finance their defense.
It is not a good sign because, when this occurs, history shows us that empires tend to enter an introverted phase where internal struggles prevail over the interest in guaranteeing an international order. Whoever wins next Tuesday is very likely to see this trend in American politics remain unchanged.
It is true that the American economy is still growing vigorously but it is equally true that this development has been doped in recent years by enormous government spending that cannot last forever. This means that the next American administration will have a lot to do on a domestic level: the problem of immigration, the opioid massacre, the control of spending, debt and inflation, the reconversion of the production and energy system on a protectionist basis.
Without considering that Americans’ trust in their political and educational institutions is at an all-time low, while the two parties express radical and almost always irreconcilable positions. These are facts that will push the ruling class to focus heavily on the internal front.
All this will lead to two probable consequences on the international level, more pronounced in the case of Trump’s victory but also present in the case of Harris’ success. On the one hand there will be a further growth of protectionist policies which will further isolate the American market and on the other hand it is foreseeable that Washington will have less interventionism in international issues which are not considered to be disastrous for American interests.
This poses a series of problems for the European political classes given that it is effectively impossible to count on more solid alliances than the one with the United States, the Russia it is now an aggressive autocracy with which economic and energy ties have been cut while China can conquer some sectors in which Europeans are no longer able to compete as in the case of electric cars and solar power. In any case, for European nations these are negative-sum games.
Added to this scenario is a stagnant European economy, with industry in recession, a green deal crippled by reality, a reformed stability pact which still seems inadequate to deal with an international economic scenario turned upside down after the pandemic. But what is perhaps worse is the inability of European countries to provide for their own security.
Although there has been much discussion about European strategic autonomy, it is far from coming in both the industrial and military fields. In this context it is unthinkable for the European Union to remain inert unless at the price of weakening all governments and economies.
Without great theories or unrealistic political reforms, the only initiative can only be a common system for relaunching investments, especially in key sectors. A selective, limited integration, but which exploits the Pnrr model.
And here we come to the Italian government which in the coming months will no longer be able to afford to focus only on immigration or to act exclusively as a stopper towards the reforms of the European Union. Meloni, who is the head of one of the most stable and strong governments, should stop playing only defense due to his past Euroscepticism and work more on common investments by bringing an Italian vision that helps overcome the European impasse on defense and economy.
In this case national interest and European interest overlap and do not clash. The alternative is to slip into a mosaic of nationalism and protectionism in which everyone does it themselves, but everyone retreats and loses ground, making the continent less prosperous and safe.
