NEW YORK – This winter should be mostly mild by wintry standards in the tri-state area, with temperatures above average, but don’t put away snow shovels or rule out possible school cancellation due to bad weather.
That’s the message from the Authority in El Tiempo, whose 2021-2022 winter weather outlook suggests at least a couple of storms big enough to close schools between early December and late February.
Generally speaking, this winter is expected to reflect last winter’s temperature. One reason is La Niña, a distant phenomenon that dictates weather patterns around the world, with cooler-than-normal water temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. He was present last winter and is with us again.
In the United States, La Niña directs the current to the northwest, an atmospheric river that brings cold and wet weather to that part of the country. The same is true of the Great Lakes and the upper Midwest. However, in all three states and in the south, La Niña tends to bring warm temperatures in winter and almost normal precipitation.
The trend has been with us for years. In the past five years alone, Central Park’s average temperature in February has been nearly 39 degrees, and three of those February are among the warmest ever on record.
But that doesn’t close the door to snow. Last February, a storm dropped nearly 17 inches of snow in Central Park, which was nearly half of what fell throughout the winter. Experts say warmer temperatures mean storms can be a little “wetter” because warmer air can hold more moisture.
So, in summary, The Weather Authority’s forecast is as follows: a fairly mild winter like last year, with above-average temperatures, but with a couple of storms big enough to close schools.
Follow the weather conditions closely with our interactive radar below:
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