What you should know
- Winter is right around the corner and many are wondering how cold or how much snow could fall in the New York area this season.
- However, for that, it is necessary to know climatological data from the region to be able to come up with a forecast of what this winter could be like, said Florencia Giménez of the Time Authority.
- What we need to know is whether we will have interactions between the cold air of Canada and what we call the polar current. If this interaction between the northern polar air and the subtropical current occurs, large snowfalls could occur.
NEW YORK – Winter is right around the corner and many are wondering how cold or how much snow could fall in the New York area this season.
However, for that, it is necessary to know climatological data from the region to be able to come up with a forecast of what this winter could be like, said Florencia Giménez of the Time Authority.
THE EL NIÑO PHENOMENON
For this, it is important to understand the El Niño phenomenon as part of the equation. According to NOAA, this natural climate phenomenon is characterized by warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the Equator, occurring on average every 2 to 7 years. El Niño’s impacts over time extend far beyond the Pacific Ocean.
“Typically with El Niño there are two or three big storms on the east coast on average, but each El Niño is different. The number of nor’easters per winter season is very different,” said Jon Gottschalck, NOAA’s chief forecaster.
For example, during the month of January temperatures are regularly lower, on average between 39 maximum and 26 minimum, says our Weather Authority. However, if temperatures were warmer than usual, the percentage of snowy days would translate to more sleet or wintry mix events.
In recent years during the El Niño stage, winters in New York City have been characterized by being whiter, but if temperatures become warmer than usual, as predicted by NOAA, the freezing of the water particles would be affected.
WHAT OTHER WINTERS HAVE BEEN LIKE
The winter of 2006-2007 was characterized by little snow when El Niño was present, as temperatures increased, making that year the tenth warmest in the nation’s history. Therefore, humidity levels were lower.
Meanwhile, the winter of 2009 to 2010, the combination of El Niño and the negative Arctic oscillation left so much snow that it surpassed the record of the year 78.
WHAT COULD CAUSE MORE SNOWFALLS
The union of El Niño with the arctic cold in its negative phase could bring freezing temperatures to the region and combining them with the humidity of El Niño could leave greater accumulations of precipitation in certain phases.
What we need to know is whether we will have interactions between the cold air of Canada and what we call the polar current. If this interaction between the northern polar air and the subtropical current occurs, large snowfalls could occur.
SO, HOW MUCH SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS WINTER
Two things are clear for this winter:
- Humidity and temperature have a 30% chance of being higher in 2023. So without ruling out the possibility of snowfall, we could have more days of winter mix than days with snow.
- However, if snowfall occurs it could be quite abundant. That is why it is important to be prepared. Have an evacuation plan at home, including knowing where to take your pets in case of an emergency, and if you are going on a trip, consider bringing a blanket, a
2023-11-18 01:28:09
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