As in any soap opera, the drama of the Copa América now has a new chapter. The experiment of having a headquarters shared by Colombia and Argentina failed, in the midst of a situation in which protests and a renewed peak in infections and deaths associated with the pandemic forced a change of headquarters, which according to the latest news would be Brazil . A decision is not without irony, if one takes into account that said country also goes through a period of demonstrations and has been one of the most affected by the covid-19.
In football, the expectations of the event are low. The national teams have had little preparation and the havoc of league restrictions and brakes will be reflected on the pitch. The selection of our country is no exception.
And although sports do not necessarily reflect what happens in each of the countries, the truth is that Latin America has been the region hardest hit globally by the pandemic. The region’s economy contracted 6.5% in 2020. More than 14 million have lost their jobs, particularly young people and women, in a labor market marked by informality, where restrictions on mobility have not generated the expected effects in health indicators, infections and deaths, but they have had a devastating effect on economic activity. School closings in Latin America have been the longest in the world, with 300 days lost on average. We are expecting 114 million students to return to the classroom, as indicated by the OECD figures.
Despite this bleak outlook, OECD projections show that some economies could have a major rebound in 2021, as vaccination campaigns advance and mobility restrictions are rethought. According to the projections of this entity, Colombia will be the country that leads the recovery group, with an expected growth of 7.6% during 2021.
This projection may sound optimistic, but it reflects the resilience of the Colombian economy, which surprised with an annual growth of 1.1% during the first quarter of this year. The OECD warned in its recent report that the strikes and lockdowns in recent weeks will have a negative effect on the economy. The figures for the demand for energy, fuel and mobility confirm the slowdown in the economy due to this phenomenon. It is very likely that we will have a drop in activity in May of more than 4%. However, everything indicates that the unacceptable channels will in fact give rise to dialogue, with which we could see a new upturn in activity in June, leveraged in the favorable external context, the dynamism of the construction sector, and of course, advancement in vaccination.
Colombia can win the America’s Cup of economic recovery. And if the country, hand in hand with a normalization in business activity and employment, manages to make a dribble to polarization, which blocks the building of consensus, as is happening in other parts of the continent, we will not only win the trophy in matters economic rebound, but we can aspire to position ourselves as one of the countries with the best prospects, in a region that in many dimensions has no way out. And well, optimism is also valid for football, even if it is for the next time.
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