Will Trump be convicted in second impeachment trial?

Original title: Will Trump be convicted in the second impeachment trial

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Will Trump be convicted in the second impeachment trial

Xinhua News Agency, Washington, February 8thWill Trump be convicted in the second impeachment trial

Xinhua News Agency reporter Xu Jianmei Deng Xianlai Yang Shilong

The U.S. Senate is scheduled to initiate an impeachment trial against former President Trump on the 9th. As the first president in American history to be impeached twice during his tenure, Trump was charged this time with “sedition”.

Analysts believe that although it is unlikely that Trump will be convicted in the end, the second impeachment has further exposed the increasing partisanship and social division in the United States, and may have a certain impact on the future direction of the US political situation.

Or a quick fix

Senate Majority (Democratic) leader Schumer announced on the 8th that after consultation with minority (Republican) leader McConnell and Trump’s lawyers team, the parties reached an agreement on trial rules, procedures, and timing. McConnell stated that the agreement “reserves due process and the rights of both parties…the senator as a juror will be given sufficient time” to hear the impeachment case.

According to the timetable stipulated in the agreement, the Senate of Congress will hold a four-hour debate and vote on whether the impeachment trial conforms to the Constitution on the 9th. The public debate began on the 10th, and the prosecution and the defense had 16 hours each to make statements in two days. After the debate is over, the senator will ask questions. If the prosecution and defense agree not to call witnesses, the trial is expected to end as early as next week. In the final stage, the two sides each have two hours for closing speeches, and then the senators deliberate and vote on whether to convict.

The chief “administrator” of the House of Representatives impeachment case and Democratic Rep. Ruskin recently sent a letter to Trump asking him to testify and accept questions in person, but the Trump lawyer team rejected it. Whether other witnesses will be called during the Senate trial is currently unknown.

Judging from the current situation, the leadership of both parties hopes to have a quick fight. The Republicans worry that the impeachment trial may further expose and deepen the division of the party, while the Democrats worry that the impeachment trial will hinder the appointment of the Biden administration and the “Hundred Days New Deal” agenda, and interfere with the legislative process such as the large-scale rescue plan. The White House said that President Biden will not spend too much time paying attention to impeachment trials.

The ending is hard to have suspense

Including Trump, three presidents in U.S. history have been impeached, but no one has been convicted. Since there has never been an impeachment trial against a former president in the history of the United States, whether this is consistent with the Constitution has become a focus of recent bipartisan struggles.

Republican Senator Rand Paul moved a motion on January 26, arguing that the Senate impeachment of the former president is unconstitutional. Although the motion was rejected, judging from the voting results, only five Republican senators stood by the Democratic Party. To convict Trump, the support of at least 17 Republican senators and all 50 Democratic senators is required to reach the legal threshold of a two-thirds majority. Therefore, the U.S. ruling and opposition parties generally believe that Trump is unlikely to be convicted.

However, despite the lack of suspense in the ending, the current situation is quite different from when Trump suffered his first impeachment trial a year ago. In the first impeachment trial, Republicans in the Senate and the House of Representatives were highly united. McConnell and other top Republican leaders strongly accused Democrats of using impeachment as a tool of party struggle and repeatedly urged the whole party to unite. Among Republican senators, only Romney voted for an impeachment clause.

In the second impeachment process, the Republican leadership in both houses of the Senate allowed members of their own party to do their own things. The main basis for most Republicans to oppose impeachment is not whether Trump “incites a rebellion,” but whether the impeachment trial of the former president is constitutional.

Trump’s lawyers’ team issued a statement on the 8th denying Trump’s incitement of violence, claiming that the outgoing president is an ordinary citizen, impeaching ordinary citizens is “ridiculous and unconstitutional”, and describing the impeachment case as a “political drama” of partisan struggle. Democrats and many legal experts cited precedents in the history of the United States for impeachment trials against former government officials to refute the “unconstitutional” claim, emphasizing that if Trump cannot be convicted, it will create a dangerous precedent, and future US leaders may “try in vain.” Keep power in any way”.

Trial influence geometry

After the 2020 presidential election, Trump refused to admit defeat and encouraged supporters to protest in Washington. On January 6 this year, some Trump supporters rushed into the Capitol when Congress certified the results of the presidential election, killing five people, including a policeman. This incident made the transfer of power to the US President become violent, and Trump was accused of “lighting the fuse.” On January 13, in the House of Representatives, 10 Republican congressmen joined the Democrats and voted to pass the impeachment clause against Trump. This is the presidential impeachment vote with the largest number of cross-party votes in American history.

But in the eyes of most Republicans, the Democrats are still pushing for the second impeachment trial for political purposes. John Pudner, a former Republican campaign adviser, said: “Democrats want people to remember this reason for opposing Trump.” The Wall Street Journal stated that the Democrats hope to use impeachment trials to further split the Republican Party, if Republican senators vote for it. Convicted, they will face the anger of “Trump voters” in future elections, and vice versa, they will face attacks from Democratic competitors.

Analysts pointed out that although Trump is unlikely to be convicted and banned from running for office by the Senate, the impeachment trial may still weaken Trump’s influence on the Republican Party and the possibility of a comeback. At present, the moderate establishment and radical conservatives in the Republican Party are vying for the “mainstream” position, and Trump’s personal political fate is critical to the future direction of the Republican Party.

The Washington Post pointed out that during Trump’s administration, the political polarization in the United States was unprecedentedly serious. This “polarization” has not disappeared after he stepped down. This is directly reflected in the attitudes of voters of both parties to impeachment trials. The poll results released by the ABC and Ipsos Group on the 7th showed that 92% of Democratic voters support the conviction of Trump, but only 15% of Republican voters hold the same position. This division of American society constitutes the “background color” of the second impeachment trial.

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