Even if Chile has singularities that cannot be exported to other countries, it is evident that the victory of the leftist Gabriel Boric will have effects on Latin America, Specially in Brazil, which will hold presidential elections in October 2022. The continuity of Jair Bolsonaro, a trumpist what do you like Jose Antonio Kast, the ultra-conservative defeated by Boric. The former Brazilian president, Inácio Lula da Silva, tops the polls. It is the great favorite.
In second place is Judge Sérgio Moro, one of the battering rams in the impeachment process of Dilma Rousseff and who spent 15 months in Bolsonaro’s government. Heads a center-right party called Podemos that has figures like the ex-footballer Romario. It is a phenomenon on the rise: it has the support of the media and a business class that does not want Lula’s return.
Boric will take possession of the Chilean presidency in March 2022. In July the new constitution. They will be months of great effervescence that will coincide with other important elections: those of Colombia. His first round will be held on May 29.
Elections in Colombia
Three groups will compete for the head of state. The leftist Gustavo Petro, who leads Pacto Histórico, is the great favorite. His main rival will come out of the Hope Center Coalition, which has the support of Ingrid Betancourt. His candidate will be decided in a primary on March 13. The third list, Team Colombia, is the pure right. An uribismo in low hours tries to place its candidate Óscar Iván Zuluaga in front.
Alvaro Uribe he was president between 2002 and 2010, one of the most violent periods of the war against the FARC. He has been linked to paramilitarism and its crimes. Uribe is at war with Michelle Bachelet, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights. He was infuriated by the latest report that leaves his patron, Iván Duque, in a bad place. He assures that it is an interference in the sovereignty of Colombia. It belongs to the kind of politicians who believe that torture, false positives and killings are an internal matter.
Petro he lost the second round of the 2018 presidential elections. Duque won 56.39% -42.61%. He has taken advantage of these years to build a national image (he is more urban; he was mayor of Bogotá) and to form a coalition to suit him. Neither he nor Lula are comparable to fenómeno Boric, which arises from the street protests of October 2019, a kind of 15M Chilean that has turned the institutional building inherited from the Pinochet dictatorship. Boric and his generation (he is 35 years old) represent an attempt to cut off ultra-liberalism.
Left in Honduras
Further north, in Honduras, other country punished by narco as it is a preferred transit route to the United States, the leftist Xiomara Castro won the elections held in November. He will take office on January 27. There they will be Lula, Dilma Rousseff and Evo Morales.
What happened in Chile reinforces the option of a pragmatic third way, more to the left than the classical one, diluted in its inability to generate a real change, and far from another populist rich in slogans that went from utopia to authoritarianism. They are the cases of Nicaragua, a matrimonial dictatorship, and Venezuela, a complex matter.
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Venezuela It has an authoritarian regime on the defensive that lost the dreams of Hugo Chávez and that shows an inability to manage, beyond the fall in the price of oil and pressure from the United States. The country is impoverished with extensive Chavismo sectors sick of Nicolas Maduro who do not trust a classist and divided opposition, heir to the two parties that took turns looting Venezuela after the fall of the dictator Pérez Jiménez in January 1958. One of them, the Social Democrat Carlos Andrés Perez, from Acción Democrática and friend of Felipe González, broke all corruption records. In his second presidency, he created the conditions for the ascent of Chávez.
That opposition to Maduro he has never had a speech that includes the poor. That is why he cannot evict him from power, especially if his offer is to put the generals who support him in jail. Venezuela it needs to build an intermediate, national and democratic way, and less external interference. Everyone is lucky that Biden not Nixon or Kissinger. Times have changed, but the threats of involution are still alive. The upper classes continue to think that politics is an extension of their farm, an order and command.
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