Will the trip to Taiwan change everything?

“Whoever plays with fire gets burned”. There is little room for interpretation in what Chinese President Xi Jinping said to his American counterpart Joe Biden. Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House of Representatives, landed in Taiwan, but his visit had consequences since he entered Taiwanese airspace. Pelosi was received while Chinese SU-35 fighter jets were flying over the Taiwan Strait. Once on the island, the Popular Liberation Army (EPL) announced military exercises and training activities, including live fire drills, in six regions surrounding the island of Taiwan and which will take place from Thursday to Sunday, according to the ‘Global Times’. Beijing’s maneuver before the arrival of the president, like the words to Biden, needs no interpretation.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry added that Pelosi has acted shamelessly in traveling to Taiwan and that the visit represents a “blatant political provocation” and a “malicious violation” of the sovereignty of the Asian country. Minister Wang Yi stressed that the United States has become a troublemaker for bilateral relations as well as a destroyer of peace in the Taiwan region.

The tension began even before Pelosi touched the ground of the small island state. The China Maritime Safety Administration announced military action near the coast of Hainan, located 1,000 kilometers from Taiwan, hours before his landing. For its part, Taiwan raised the state of alert and the Army increased its combat readiness. The decision, initially, will stand until Thursday.

China interprets Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan as a lack of respect for its sovereignty and may be the perfect excuse to increase tensions with the United States. “We are seeing actions along the Taiwan Strait. In addition, the Chinese government is taking measures such as a ban on importing Taiwanese food and agricultural products,” Janka Oertel, director of the Asia Program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, tells El Confidential.

Nancy Pelosi, to the Taiwanese president: “The US will not abandon Taiwan”

EFE

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Beijing has a complete arsenal at its disposal, he continues, but it will also weigh the costs and damage to its own economy. Pelosi has met with top Taiwanese officials and China will not sit idly by, but a direct confrontation could spook markets and seriously affect the Chinese economy. “The economic implications would be enormous And a Chinese victory is far from certain, as the US military remains superior on many levels, particularly when it comes to actual war experience,” Oertel stressed.

China has been seeking diplomatic isolation against Taiwan for years and the dialogue of other countries with the island interprets it as support for independence. Beijing claims the island as part of its territory and one of Jinping’s priorities is, as he calls it, “reunifying” the island with the Asian giant.

Pelosi met with the President of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, and proclaimed that The United States “will not abandon Taiwan”, an island that he described as an “example” for the world. The official assured that “American solidarity with Taiwan is crucial” and that her country’s determination to “protect Taiwanese democracy and in the rest of the world” remains “unaltered”.

Getting used to a military confrontation

An open confrontation between the US and China is not in the interest of the latter country, although Washington did not seem up for the job either. President Joe Biden and other officials urged Pelosi not to go ahead with her trip to avoid a stress episode. On the other hand, all attention and efforts are focused on the Ukraine crisis. Another front may be too big a problem to deal with.

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Pelosi’s trip to nowhere at the worst time to provoke Beijing

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Even if Pelosi had reversed course and not gone to Taiwan, many experts believe that the tensions would return at another time. The US government has shown itself on several occasions in favor of the Taiwanese struggle and it seems very unlikely that China will ignore the actions in favor of the island, whether they are more or less symbolic.

“In Europe we have to get used to the fact that a military confrontation between the US and China is not a distant fantasy, but a realistic option with far-reaching consequences for our own economies“, warns Janka Oertel. In addition to military operations, another escalation of the conflict could have an impact on the trade war. If China acted in any way in response to Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, Washington could respond in the form of additional sanctions or export controls. It could even ask for the support of the European Union, which could, according to Oertel, have serious implications for European business in China.

In fact, on the same day as Pelosi’s visit, China has imposed new sanctions on the island, including a ban on import citrus, frozen bamboo shootstwo types of fish and the sand exporta prized asset for Taiwan.

A confrontation with China does not interest the United States, but Jinping is not going through his best moment either. The Chinese president is focused on the Communist Party congress, which will take place at the end of the year and in which he is expected to obtain support for a third term as general secretary. Victory seems more than likely, but the president has several challenges ahead. In the first place, the economic challenges due to the covid pandemic and the confinements.

Biden warns that the US would intervene if China tries to take Taiwan by force

EFE

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On the other hand, the war in Ukraine has also been a troublesome issue for Beijing. An article by Hu Wei, vice president of the Public Policy Research Center of the State Council Counselor’s Office and president of the Shanghai Public Policy Research Association, caused quite a stir. Wei criticized the union between China and Putin and condemned that the Asian giant had not had a more forceful response against the invasion in Ukraine. The article was shared on social networks, where many Chinese agreed with this position and criticized Jinping’s policy in the Ukraine war, reported ‘The New York Times’.

The relationship between Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin is another of the fronts where the Asian may have problems winning a third term for his party. In this context, his reaction to Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan may be another challenge that weakens him, or the opposite. The president has presented unification with Taiwan as one of his goals for “national rejuvenation” of the country as a modern and united superpower. Jinping does not hide that he wants to take control of the island at some point and, although he claims that he wants to do it peacefully, nor does he rule out force to achieve his goal. This can be a dangerous time to test how far you’re willing to go. Or a good time to show support for Taiwan.

Support peacefully (but with consequences)

China’s response has been a military maneuver and economic actions can be carried out that will have repercussions for weeks or even months. That time will be a yardstick for calculating exactly what level of US commitment to Taiwan is. Pelosi’s arrival on the island has been widely covered by the international media and has caused a stir, but what will happen after the controversy that can mark the future of Taiwan and relations between the United States and China.

Taiwan’s president warns that the threat from China increases “every day”

EP

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For Taiwan, Pelosi’s visit is a great show of support. Janka Oertel believes for this newspaper that, in general, positions in favor of the Taiwanese cause have increased, “including the parliaments of European countries and the European Parliament” as an institution. “It is a form of peaceful support and is not really provocativebut Beijing feels democracy as a provocation,” he laments.

Nancy Pelosi has become the highest-ranking US representative to visit Taiwan in the past 25 years. The trip has a diplomatic and more symbolic look than anything else for the island, but it is no less relevant for that. Despite the support of several countries, Beijing has long fought against shows of solidarity with the Taiwanese cause. And few want to take on China.

The dilemma many Taiwanese may have is how to respond to this visit. No one has consulted them if they agree and they cannot refuse a trip of such magnitude and that symbolically means a lot to them. But they may be afraid to welcome it too warmly for fear of China’s reaction. They do not want to tighten (even more) the rope.

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“Whoever plays with fire gets burned”. There is little room for interpretation in what Chinese President Xi Jinping said to his American counterpart Joe Biden. Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House of Representatives, landed in Taiwan, but his visit had consequences since he entered Taiwanese airspace. Pelosi was received while Chinese SU-35 fighter jets were flying over the Taiwan Strait. Once on the island, the Popular Liberation Army (EPL) announced military exercises and training activities, including live fire drills, in six regions surrounding the island of Taiwan and which will take place from Thursday to Sunday, according to the ‘Global Times’. Beijing’s maneuver before the arrival of the president, like the words to Biden, needs no interpretation.

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