Weather: will summer 2022 really be as hot as many say? We show you what the maps say
First advances on the next summer season with updated data from the European Center
First Anticipations for next SummerWe are fast approaching Summer and, also thanks to the first heat coming to Italy, many are asking us what kind of season awaits us in the coming months. Sara really hot like in 2003 as everyone says lately?
To be able to trace a trend for next summer we have to rely on so-called maps with seasonal projections (months June, July and August): once decidedly unreliable and a mere object of study and of interest for the curious and passionate, the seasonal projections have now become a valid tool for scientific prognosis, with decisive contributions in longer-term climate assessment. In Europe, the leader in the sector is the European Center for Medium-term Meteorological Forecasting, ECMWFin Reading (UK).
Well, many sites and the main meteorological information bodies rightly begin to hazard a trend towards the great heat in view of the next Summer with anomalies at the continental level.
But let’s try to understand what’s true and above all what we already know, with the help of the latest seasonal data, just issued.
Analyzing the climatic data of the past it immediately catches the eye how the summer of 2003 came after an extremely dry spring and, at least in its final part, also unusually hot. In short, the same weather conditions we have been experiencing in recent months; in June of that year then the first real wave of summer heat broke out, the ground was already extremely dry and prone to ignite very easily: that’s why that of 2003 is still among the hottest months of June ever (the Summer was then the hottest of the last centuries), and the one that besieged Italy between 6 and 18 June one of the most ferocious heat waves in the history of this month. So what can we expect for the next few months?
Well, the latest projections are clear: already with the start of June le temperature they could be well above the climatic average, with deviations from the reference values even of +3°C over much of Central Western Europe, including Italy. At the moment even the following months of July and August are likely to follow this trend; there is a map (we propose it below) that reveals, in this regard, the seasonal forecasts for July and August: the thermal anomaly over the whole of central-southern Europe is evident, probably due to a greater interference than the infamous African anticyclone.
Until a few years ago, the mildest high pressure in the Azores (of oceanic origin) dictated the law on the Old Continent. Lately, however, we are witnessing an increasing presence of air masses from North Africa, the ones responsible for stronger and more persistent heat waves also on Italy.
The second aspect to be monitored, especially after the last few months that have been dry in most of the regions, concerns the rainfall. In this case too, the projections for the next few months come to our aid; Well, the problem linked to water scarcity would seem to be exacerbated with a
pluviometric deficit in particular in the North, due to a probable persistence of a high pressure field with the consequent risk of Droughtas we have already had the opportunity to experience in recent months.
We will therefore see if these first hypotheses in the long term will be confirmed and what the effects on our country will be.
First screenings for next Summer. Temperatures above the climatic average
Precipitation below the climatic average, risk of drought
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