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Will South Korean President Moon Jae-in initiate his country’s integration into the Quad, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between the United States, Japan, India and Australia? (Source: National Interest) – – This is the fear of China: a new NATO formed in Asia to thwart its aims of regional hegemony. It is already in the making with the Quad, a security forum created by the United States with Japan, India and Australia. The next step for a true mutual security organization to emerge? The integration of South Korea. Seoul is faced with a dilemma: ensure its security with the United States or maintain good relations with the powerful Chinese neighbor, considered essential to channel the danger from North Korea? Certain new developments could tip the balance towards the Quad. – According to diplomats quoted by the South China Morning Post, Beijing approached Seoul in order to obtain clarifications about an ongoing reflection within the South Korean government about a possible extension to South Korea of the “Quad”, this security forum which brings together the United States. United, Japan, India and Australia. This would confirm the creation of a new Asian NATO at the gates of China. Quoted on April 17 by the English-language Hong Kong daily, these diplomats say the South Korean government has been approached in recent weeks by the Chinese authorities to shed light on a particularly sensitive subject. For the moment, Seoul has told them that it has not yet received any such invitation. – The “Quad”, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue bringing together the United States, Japan, Australia and India, was set up in May 2007. It is of great concern to China and its analysts. “The United States has been wooing South Korea for some time and is seeking to integrate alliances with Tokyo and Seoul into a new triangular alliance, underlines Qian Yong, associate professor of the Korean Institute at Zhejiang University. If the South Koreans join the Quad, chances are great that this process will lead to a trio, in other words a small NATO in East Asia, which would pose a certain challenge to China’s security. “ – For Bi Yingda, an expert researcher of Korean studies at Shandong University, such a coalition would put China under extreme pressure and would increase the risks of a conflict: “An anti-Chinese multilateral alliance in East Asia would only increase confrontation in the region. A rapprochement between China and Russia would follow, and Beijing would then choose to side with North Korea on the issue of the Korean peninsula. If that day were to come, this situation could easily escalate into a confrontation between the two camps. In history, this is usually how a hot war begins. “ – Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has repeatedly said that the Quad is taking on the appearance of a new NATO and has come to pose a serious threat to regional security. Beijing has more than once accused Washington of creating a “clique” to prevent China’s rise. It also happens that several European countries, including France, recently participated in maneuvers with Quad member countries in the South China Sea and expressed their intention to join a coordinated plan with India and Australia in the region. –
“The Quad has provided the United States and its allies with an ideal multilateral framework to contain China in the future,” comments Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing, quoted by the same Hong Kong newspaper. According to Tang Xiaoyang, another professor of international relations at Tsinghua University in Beijing, China could legitimately worry about being surrounded from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean in this way: “The members of the” Five Eyes ” [groupement de pays pour échanger des informations sur le renseignement militaire] such as the UK, Canada and New Zealand may be interested in taking part. “ – The decision of South Korea whether or not to join the “Quad” is very complicated. On the one hand, it comes up against icy relations between Seoul and Tokyo due to the legacy of Japanese colonization of the Korean peninsula which continues to arouse very strong anti-Japanese resentment on South Korean soil. – Another obstacle is the need for Seoul to maintain China’s support in the North Korean dossier. Beijing can play a role in the decisions Kim Jong-un will make or not. But many North Korean observers believe that China’s real influence over the dictator in Pyongyang remains very limited, the latter having repeatedly shown that he will do as he pleases. – But two paradigms have recently changed which could facilitate South Korea’s entry into the “Quad”. First, the decision on April 21 taken by a Seoul court to dismiss a complaint filed by former “comfort women”, these South Koreans forced to become sex slaves of Japanese soldiers during the Japanese occupation of the peninsula. . The court thus quashed a previous judgment that ordered Tokyo to pay compensation and issue a formal apology. – Second paradigm in the process of upheaval: the beginning of a clarification by the Japanese government on the commitment that its self-defense forces could take alongside the United States in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. In their joint statement, US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga expressed common concern over the Chinese threat to ancient Formosa. Tokyo first let it be known that this declaration did not presuppose an armed engagement on its part in the event of a Chinese invasion. But later, the Japanese agency Kyodo claimed that Japan was in fact studying the feasibility of an order given to its fighter jets to protect American ships in the event of a crisis between China and Taiwan. – This observation stems from Japan’s proximity to Taiwan and China and the possibility that an armed conflict may end up posing a threat to the Japanese population, the news agency understands. Takashi Terada, professor of international relations at Doshisha University in Kyoto, believes that Yoshihide Suga’s remarks point to the possibility of a Japanese military engagement in Taiwan. – With all of this, what will South Korean President Moon Jae-in do in Washington where he will be received by his American counterpart? The two men will of course reaffirm the strength of the alliance between the United States and South Korea. But they might not stop there. –
By Pierre-Antoine Donnet – Asialyst is designed by a team made up 100% of volunteers and thanks to a network of contributors in Asia or elsewhere, journalists, experts, academics, consultants or former diplomats … Our only goal: to share knowledge of Asia as much as possible. large audience. Make a donation Former AFP journalist, Pierre-Antoine Donnet is the author of around fifteen books devoted to China, Japan, Tibet, India and major Asian challenges. In 2020, this former correspondent in Beijing published “World leadership in question, The clash between China and the United States” with Editions de l’Aube. He is also the author of “Tibet dead or alive”, published by Gallimard in 1990 and republished in 2019 in an updated and expanded version. – –
“This is how a hot war usually starts”
Double paradigm shift
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