President Biden used strong language towards Putin last night. Is that kind of threatening language wise?
“‘Putin has no idea what awaits him,’ said Biden. I don’t think it was in his written text, but he made it up on the spot. America can say something like that, Europe can’t. America is the largest military power in the world. Then you can do that. In Europe, that kind of tough language is much less common, because there is no military power behind it either. Biden can do that. Moreover, he has said that they are not an inch from NATO territory if Putin shifts the fight.”
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One company after another is leaving Russia: Apple, MAERSK, oil and gas companies. How hard will that hit Russia?
“If you add it all up, such as tackling the Russian central bank and the attempts to destroy the ruble, I think that that will cause a lot of damage to Russia. There was also the news about Nord Stream again. 2, that gas pipeline that would be bankrupt. Then things will go very fast. I think Putin misjudged this.”
Will this change his mind too?
“That’s always difficult. I always think about Iraq in the early 1990s. Then half of the gross national product was wiped out by sanctions, but Saddam Hussein remained quietly in place. So that’s saying not all that much. It also depends on whether the people stick with the president. I think it is more important how the struggle develops in Ukraine. You see that in the south of the country a struggle is now being waged. Mariupol, too, where 50 percent of the inhabitants are Russian, they are surrounded by the Russians.If that goes all wrong because the Russians use a lot of violence, the Russian people can find out anyway. That would mean that support for such a military operation in Russia then crumble very quickly. And that seems a greater danger in the short term than the economic sanctions, which hit Russia unheard of.”
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If, as a result of all those economic sanctions against Russia, pensions evaporate and companies go bankrupt, doesn’t that reduce support?
“Normally not. That’s the interesting thing about sanctions, that the population is going to unite behind the leaders. We saw that before in Iran and Iraq. That is a recurring fact in history. These sanctions, I have to add that They’ve never happened before. This has never happened before. It’s never happened before that they try to destroy an entire coin. Of course, that could have an effect that we can’t predict at the moment. But normally sanctions work much more of a catalyst for popular support for the leader. But forecasting is difficult because we are moving into an area we have never been in before.”
China has also made itself heard. The country deplores the outbreak of the conflict and the victims. Is China going to turn against Russia?
“I don’t think so. During the early days of the Olympics, China and Russia signed some kind of non-aggression pact and a statement was made by Putin and Xi. Putin also needed Xi to start these activities. In that agreement basically states that Xi has hands free in Asia and Putin has hands free in Europe.
At the same time, you see that the Chinese cannot believe that Russia was actually going to do this in Ukraine. I think they were scared of that. And what is also hopeful: there has been contact between the foreign ministers of Ukraine and China, with the aim of finding out what has happened and what can be done about it. And, whether it’s really true, we don’t know yet, but maybe China could play a mediating role. And that would be a very credible partner for that role, because there is, after all, an agreement between Xi and Putin. If such a country says: we are going to mediate, it will have an impact.”
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