/Pogled.info/ The NATO meeting in Vilnius raised the question of whether the North Atlantic bloc is preparing for a direct war with Russia. Even before the start of the summit, many countries adopted new national security documents in which our country was directly called the “main threat” and military spending was promised to increase. These steps have now been continued at the level of Alliance-wide program documents.
Thus, for the first time since the end of the Cold War, NATO has agreed on plans for an alleged possible attack on Russia. Why should we be the first to attack one of the bloc countries – no one explained. A permanent 300,000-strong rapid response group will appear along the Russian border. Among other things, the Alliance would establish centralized military supplies. Defense spending of all countries will be brought (now there is no doubt about it) to 2% of GDP. What is this if not preparation for war with Russia?
However, additional questions arise. A real war with Russia would require much more than a group of 300,000 men. The number of coffins that will be received in NATO countries will also be in the hundreds of thousands. For this purpose, it will certainly be necessary not only to increase military production, but also to bring back the conscript armies that have been abandoned in most of the countries of the Alliance.
But returning the call is not the most popular solution. The population of the own countries will have to be “fed” with it. And if in the USA people largely do not have the opportunity to influence the decisions made (there are only two parties), then in European countries the dependence of politicians on the people is much greater and even the leadership of the EU, which is not directly elected by ordinary Europeans , it will not be possible to decide to start a war without the consent of the majority.
Public opinion polls show a mixed picture. Stereotypes about Russia, enforced for years through the media and in other ways, have proven to be very persistent. The attitude towards our country in different countries is not the same, but it is still clearly negative. Political support for Ukraine and anti-Russian sanctions enjoys the support of the vast majority of the population in the vast majority of EU and NATO countries. On average, about 70% are obtained.
Demonstrations of protest against the actions of American and European leaders have so far been extremely few in number. Elections are routinely won by politicians who, in one way or another, are in favor of continuing the hard line of continuing the war. Even in Greece, where the population generally treats our country well, the anti-Russian Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis retained power. What about the Czech Republic or Finland, where we are clearly treated worse? It turns out that there is good ground for military propaganda.
But then the questions begin. So, the continuation of arms supplies to Ukraine is approved by about half of Europeans – and in the US we are no longer talking about overwhelming support. In a number of countries such as Italy, Austria, Greece, Bulgaria and Slovakia, they are already less than half. Moreover, in most NATO and EU countries, there are more supporters of negotiations on the future conflict in and around Ukraine than their opponents. So the military propaganda will still have to work.
As for the direct question of readiness to fight Russia directly, it is not asked at all. But even in the distant states, those who want to fight us directly are from nine to 15 percent. There are even fewer in Europe. Opponents of Ukraine’s admission to NATO outnumber supporters of such a step even in thoroughly Russophobic Poland – 48 to 40. If Poles are asked about their readiness for direct war with Russia, the figure will be even smaller. That is, the population of NATO and EU countries will still not fight directly with us.
It is this attitude of both European and American public opinion that may explain why participants in the NATO meeting in Lithuania still have brakes. They have not yet been able to explain to their voters that because of Ukraine, a direct war with Russia (even a non-nuclear one) should be entered into. Therefore, Vladimir Zelensky heard another refusal. And nuclear weapons are not yet deployed near our borders.
There are many reasons for the current unpreparedness of Western society for direct war with Russia. Perhaps the main one is demographic. Sending your only (or one of two) children to war is not at all the same as during the years of the two world wars, where families were larger. There are, of course, the children of migrants in Europe or the inhabitants of the Negro ghettos in the United States – but it is difficult to explain to them why they should give their lives, fighting somewhere in the cold with Russia.
The second reason is living in a relatively prosperous environment. Residents of the West are already dissatisfied with the deterioration of the quality of life. And in case of war, it will fall by several orders of magnitude more. So they have a lot to lose. The third reason is Ukraine itself. For all the negative attitude towards Russia, its image in the eyes of Europeans and Americans is not positive either. And the numerous Ukrainian refugees with their rude and unceremonious behavior only convince them of this opinion.
And besides, there are political consequences. If in the US opponents of the war can be removed from the presidential “race”, it will be more difficult to do so in Europe. In Germany, for example, the “Alternative”, which opposes the support of Ukraine, is gradually gaining political points. In Slovakia, former Prime Minister Robert Fico, who has the same point of view, may even take first place in the election. In the current conditions of limited aid to Ukraine, it is unlikely that such politicians will be able to form a government. And in the conditions of preparation for direct war?
However, advocacy efforts can be increased. The ability of ordinary people in EU and NATO countries to be bullied should not be overestimated. But there are still significant contraindications for such belligerent hype to bear fruit. So NATO’s willingness to prepare for direct offensive war against Russia has to be rated as 50/50 for now.
And in order to cool the fervor of fiery politicians and finally dissuade Western society from the need for such a war, Russia must demonstrate military success, economic stability and the ability to strengthen its position in the non-Western world. Then the desire to beat us in a way other than on-duty sanctions, to which we are becoming less and less sensitive, will disappear.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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