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Will Lukashenka be loyal to Putin to the end?


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Perhaps Alexander Lukashenko is the last remaining ally of Vladimir Putin in the post-Soviet space

At the May 16 summit in Moscow, dedicated to the twentieth anniversary of Collective Security Treaty Organizations (CSTO), the Belarusian autocrat was the only leader to call on the military bloc to join forces to defend Russia and against the West.

«Now it is absolutely obvious that, without meeting united opposition from the CSTO allies and other integration associations in the post-Soviet space, the collective West will increase its pressure,” Lukashenka said in his address to the heads of the CSTO member countries, dominated by Russia, — Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

But, apparently, there were no more applicants. Apart from Putin and Lukashenko, no other leader has raised the issue of war in Ukraine in public speeches. Meduza reports that the conflict was discussed behind closed doors, but the joint statement released after the meeting said nothing about Ukraine and the so-called «special military operation” of Russia.

CSTO Secretary General Stanislav Zas told reporters that the prospect of sending troops of the organization’s countries to Ukraine was not discussed. Kazakhstan, which has the second largest army in the bloc after Russia, has repeatedly ruled out sending CSTO troops to Ukraine. Kazakhstan has also refused to help Russia circumvent Western sanctions imposed in response to Putin’s invasion.

The lack of support from the six-nation CSTO underscored Russia’s deepening international isolation, something that is becoming apparent to even the Kremlin’s most staunch supporters. “We are in complete geopolitical isolation, and the whole world is against us, even if we do not want to admit it,” said Mikhail Khodarenoka retired colonel and military observer on May 16 on the air of a propaganda talk show aired on the Russia 1 channel.

However, after the conclusion of the CSTO summit, Lukashenko sought to demonstrate his usefulness and loyalty to Putin by massing his troops along the Belarusian border with Ukraine. The move, according to a British military intelligence report, appears to have been an attempt to distract Ukrainian forces from confronting Russia in the Donbas.

Lukashenka is also unpredictable

«Earlier this month, after the exercise, Belarus announced the deployment of special forces along the border with Ukraine, as well as air defense units, artillery and missiles to training grounds in the west of the country. The presence of Belarusian troops near the border will most likely keep Ukrainian troops near the border, so that they will not be able to advance to support the Donbass, ”the UK Ministry of Defense said.

Although Lukashenko is Putin’s last remaining ally in the post-Soviet space, he is just as unpredictable.

I’m already wrote that Lukashenka’s survival instincts simultaneously pushing him in opposite directions on the subject of what position to take in Putin’s war against Ukraine. His almost complete dependence on the Russian dictator for political survival makes Lukashenko support Putin’s war. At the same time, the fact that this war is being conducted badly, Belarus does not support the war, the West imposes additional sanctions for its support, and the country finds itself in deeper international isolation, prompts Lukashenka to distance himself from the conflict.

According to British intelligence, Belarusian dictator walks on a knife edge “probably balancing between support for a Russian invasion and a desire to avoid direct military involvement with the risk of Western sanctions, Ukrainian retaliation and possible resentment in the Belarusian armed forces.”

Being one of Putin’s few remaining friends has already cost Belarus dearly. On May 15, Prime Minister of Belarus Roman Golovchenko said that Western sanctions cost the country $16 billion and about $18 billion lost from exports. “Because of the sanctions, almost all Belarusian exports to the countries of the European Union and North America are blocked,” he said.

The differences that emerged at the CSTO summit in Moscow show how Western sanctions and pressure on Russia and Belarus work. Lukashenka himself apparently acknowledged this in his speech at the summit, complaining about “hellish sanctions” and saying: “With the tacit consent of our partners, Belarus and Russia, contrary to all the laws of international life, are being defamed and excluded from international organizations at the whim of the West.”

Seeing the isolation Belarus suffers from supporting Putin’s war, the costs ranging from economic sanctions to exclusion from international sporting events, Russia’s other former CSTO allies will clearly think twice before giving even token support to the Kremlin.

Translation HB

HB has the exclusive right to translate and publish the Atlantic Council columns. Republishing the full version of the text is prohibited.

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