Western rocket artillery throws sticks at the wheels of the Russian war machine. Now the Ukrainians can protect targets that were previously out of reach.
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The HIMARS missile system was part of the Biden administration’s latest weapons package to Ukraine and has already been used on the southeastern front with great effect.
The missiles have a range of 70-80 kilometers. GPS control makes them extremely accurate. They are launched from vehicles that can be quickly moved to new positions.
Huge explosions have recently been recorded far behind the Russian lines in occupied territories in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions.
A Ukrainian spokesman claimed on Wednesday that Ukraine had destroyed about two dozen Russian weapons and fuel depots over the past two weeks.
– This will certainly affect the intensity of the firing that the Russians can deploy, says spokesman Vadym Denysenko according to CNN about the weapons Ukraine has received.
Soon, long-range, precise and mobile missile systems from the United Kingdom (MLRS) and self-propelled tubular artillery from France (Caesar) will also be deployed in the defense of Ukraine.
Norway has contributed indirectly to the British arms delivery.
–– These weapons make it more difficult for the Russians to use their material superiority to tear the Ukrainians down completely, says former defense chief Sverre Diesen to VG.
Can shoot at new targets
He believes that the Russians could continue their strategy of exhaustion, it was not for the last Western weapons aid that is deployed against the one-sided Russian bombing.
– With the new missile systems, the Ukrainians can take targets under fire that were previously out of reach, says Diesen, who is chief researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment.
Diesen says that superior Russian artillery has so far been able to stand in the same position for days and pump out rockets from a long distance, which has inflicted heavy losses on the Ukrainians.
The new missile systems enable the Ukrainians to strike back.
– Ukrainian location radars calculate where the Russian weapons platforms are and can take them under fire immediately. This will lead to the Russians both losing and becoming less efficient.
– Must think new
Diesen says that the Russian artillery will have to spend more time moving and finding new firing positions, where they used to be able to stand and shoot undisturbed.
– If the artillery is forced to move more often, it will also be more demanding to supply them with ammunition. The Russians will have to be more careful and think new.
Diesen says that it creates further problems for Russian logistics and combat management that the Ukrainians can now protect ammunition depots and command posts.
–He believes the new weapons on the Ukrainian side are changing the balance of power:
– It goes from a war of attrition with the advantage of Russia to becoming a war of attrition where the parties are to a greater extent even. A form of stagnation crystallizes.
Diesen emphasizes that the Ukrainians are not yet able to go on a major counter-offensive. And they are vulnerable to losing some of the new systems that they have gained very little from.
Lang front
Tom Røseth, associate professor at the Norwegian Defense College, believes that the effect of the new rocket batteries will depend on how many Ukrainians receive from western countries.
– When British MLRS and French Caesar are phased in, they may have more than 40 systems. But the front line is very long and there are an incredible number of goals on the other side.
He says it will be a priority for the Russian forces to strike out the advanced Western weapon systems, because they are a threat and symbolically important.
– They will be threatened by Russian missile attacks and must be protected with good air defense.
–Røseth believes that the new missile systems will be able to slow down the Russian military progress, provided that they are not knocked out and receive a supply of Western ammunition.
– But the Ukrainians will need more such systems and other military tools to be able to carry out a powerful counter-offensive in the east, Røseth says.
Fight break
Since July 7, parts of the Russian force have been on hiatus. The troops that took the cities of Sevierodonetsk and Lysychansk in Luhansk gather forces, new supplies and crews are brought in.
“The Russian forces will not be able to gain control of Donetsk Oblast until they have rested, reorganized and resupplied the units,” Diesen said.
Røseth thinks it will be another couple of weeks before a Russian offensive against Donetsk.
– It can also happen earlier, if the Russians want to maintain momentum before the Ukrainians strengthen. I do not think the Russians will go with the Donbas, but seek to move further west.
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