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The latest poll results for this year’s US election suggest a close race. Kamala Harris could even catch up in Republican strongholds.
Washington DC – Since Kamala Harris announced her candidacy for the US election, the Democratic candidate seems to be riding a wave of approval. A new poll is likely to be particularly bad for Donald Trump. According to the survey by Emerson College in cooperation with the US news portal The Hill Harris is catching up – and that even applies to Republican strongholds like Texas.
How The Hill reported that the latest poll on the US election showed that Donald Trump is still leading in the “Lonestar State.” However, his lead has shrunk to less than four percent. This is now within the “margin of error,” i.e. the statistical error range that does not allow an accurate prediction of the possible outcome.
The US elections will be decided in the swing states. The current polls show how close it is between Kamala Harris (l.) and Donald Trump. © Laura Brett/Zuma Press Wire/Imago; Mark Alfred/Zuma Press Wire/Imago; Montage: RUHR24
Harris catches up with Trump in Texas and Florida – two new swing states for the US election?
According to the new figures for the US election, the situation is similar in Florida. There, Trump is said to still have a lead of five percent. The Republican won the state in both 2020 and 2016.
The forecasts of the current poll for Texas and Florida are closer together than the results of other surveys on the US election. However, they do not deviate completely from the trend of the last surveys, which all indicate a much closer race between Trump and Harris in these states than was the case in the last elections.
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Despite everything, it remains unlikely that Kamala Harris will turn Florida or Texas into a swing state. The model of the current poll also sees Donald Trump on course for victory in both states. A victory for the Democrat in one of the two states would be tantamount to a preliminary decision.
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This is mainly due to the “Electoral College”, the US electoral system behind the presidential election. Whoever wins in a state receives – with a few exceptions – all of the state’s electoral votes. The larger the state, the more electoral votes are awarded. For example, California, the most populous state, awards 54 electoral votes, while the least populated states such as Alaska receive three. Florida has 30 electoral votes, and Texas even awards 40.
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Instead of Texas or Florida, the decision about the US election will probably be made in the presumed swing states. These include:
- Arizona (11 electors)
- Pennsylvania (19)
- Georgia (16)
- Wisconsin (10)
- Michigan (10)
- Nevada (6)
It will be particularly close in these states. Harris and Trump have little time left before the election on November 5. The election campaign is heading towards a preliminary climax next week. On Tuesday, the candidates will meet for the first TV debate. (dil)
