Prime Minister Boris Johnson is facing a fateful week. Nothing less than his political life is at stake, and Johnson’s own party colleagues now function in the role of both prosecutor and judge.
Should the political storm turn into a hurricane in the face of a long-awaited scandal report, party colleagues can quickly also play the role of executioner.
– The rope he hangs in is getting thinner and thinner, and absolutely everything is self-applied. He has dug his own grave, says Erik Mustad, senior lecturer at the University of Agder (UiA) and one of Norway’s foremost UK experts, to Dagbladet.
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This is necessary
The background to the fateful situation Johnson is in is the many party scandals that have been rolled up.
While Prime Minister Johnson ordered the British to stay at home and banned social contact between different households, party after party has been held at the Prime Minister’s residence in Downing Street.
The parties have been described as “pure naval battles”, and is being investigated by the police. Towards the end of the week, an investigation report from the British government is also expected.
The party report could quickly become decisive for Johnson’s future, believes UK expert Mustad.
– If the report is so serious that the opinion polls just continue to plummet and show no signs of improvement, the burden on the Conservative Party may be too great. If they think this could go beyond the chances of winning the parliamentary elections in 2024, they could conceivably trap him, Mustad says.
LIZ TRUSS: The British Foreign Secretary pulled a Thatcher when she was pictured on a tank last year. Photo: 10 Downing Street
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To i teten
Should Johnson be forced out of 10 Downing Street, the Conservatives will have to find their third leader in less than six years.
Four potential candidates stand out already now, according to Mustad.
– The ones who are best off are Truss and Sunak. Patel and Javid are the two who follow most closely. In addition, there are many who lurk in the bushes, says Mustad.
– GREATEST INTEGRITY: Britain expert Erik Mustad describes Finance Minister Rishi Sunad as “the one with the greatest integrity” in the Conservative Party. Photo: PA / NTB
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Truss has distinguished himself among the grassroots of the Conservative Party for his freedom-loving and patriotic rhetoric, writes The Guardian. She is constantly at the top of informal surveys about who should take over the leadership of the Conservative Party after Boris Johnson.
The Foreign Secretary has also copied former party leader and Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in at least one area: Both have been photographed on tanks.
– Sunak is probably the one with the greatest integrity in the party. He is Johnson’s rake opposite. It is “no nonsense”, and he has no major crises or disasters behind him. It can hit both ways. He is a young, undescribed leaf. It may give the party a fresh start, but on the other hand he may not have the weight needed to become leader and prime minister, Mustad says.
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Just behind the lead
Interior Minister Priti Patel and Health Minister Sajid Javid are also high-profile members of Johnson’s government.
Patel is described by The Guardian as a controversial figure in British politics, yet popular with his own constituents for his tough immigration policies.
However, she has some political scratches in the paint. In 2017, she had to resign as development minister when it was revealed that she had had unauthorized and secret meetings with Israeli politicians.
When she returned to the government two years later, a report stated that she had bullied officials in the ministry.
Sajid Javid is also a frequently mentioned candidate. He ran for office when Johnson won, finishing in fourth place. The 52-year-old is a former financier and was elected to the House of Commons in 2010.
Before Javid became Minister of Health, he was Minister of Finance. He chose to step down as finance minister – in a kind of silent protest – when Prime Minister Johnson tried to hand-pick advisers for Javid.
PRITI PATEL: Home Secretary Priti Patel is a controversial, yet popular figure, in the United Kingdom. Photo: PA / NTB
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Those in the bushes
– Often someone also comes into the picture you do not count on, Mustad says about potential leadership candidates.
It has happened several times before that the Conservatives have made unexpected leadership choices, he says.
It happened in 1990, when John Major succeeded Margaret Thatcher, and after Major William Hague came sailing in from the left. After Winston Churchill finished, the party went to Anthony Eden, Mustad says.
All these acquisitions have one thing in common:
– After a leader who has done a lot of pranks, the Conservatives have often gone for someone safe, the expert says.
And Johnson has definitely made a lot of fun.
SAJID JAVID: Minister of Health Sajid Javid resigned as Minister of Finance when Boris Johnson tried to hand-pick which advisers Javid should have. Photo: PA / NTB
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Think Johnson survives
There can also be more. Mustad is not convinced that the political pressure on either Johnson or the Conservatives is great enough to have major consequences.
– I think Johnson will be sitting. He is British politics’ “comeback kid”, says the expert.
First, 54 Conservative MPs must step in to table a no-confidence motion against Johnson. Then half of the Conservative MPs have to vote against him.
