Wilders is ready to play up his position of power

Mark Rutte’s political mentor is eager to succeed his disciple in the Tower. Twenty-five years after he entered the House of Representatives and almost twenty years after he left the VVD and started his own business, Geert Wilders delivers his biggest political surprise to date.

Also for himself. Because no matter how often in interviews with party leaders in recent weeks it was about governing with Wilders, it was rarely about governing without Wilders. That was a scenario that the PVV also took into account only late, as evidenced by Wilders’ campaign appearances.

As consistent as Wilders was for weeks about his ambitions (joining the government) and his priorities (not fighting Islam, but limiting the number of asylum seekers), he sounded vague when asked what a Geert Wilders premiership would look like. And the PVV may want to make concessions, but what would they look like? A moderate mosque ban? Half an asylum stop?

A Wilders cabinet would in any case remain “within the framework of the Constitution”, he made clear on the evening of his monster score. Apparently that was worth mentioning.

“I have no idea who they all are,” said Martin Bosma about new party members

The surprise about the result was evident on Thursday morning from the faces of the PVV members who arrived for the first party meeting with the new composition. Thirty-seven seats: it all just fits in the faction room on the heavily secured PVV wing.

“I have no idea who they all are,” Chamber veteran Martin Bosma had already noted in front of the television cameras on election night.

And indeed: many of them are seeing each other for the first time. After all, the PVV is a party with only one member – Wilders himself – and bears almost no resemblance to other parties. There are no party conferences, contact between factions in the country and the parliamentary faction in The Hague is minimal, and talent development is virtually absent.

So who are the PVV members who will soon take a seat in the faction? Even the PVV hardly seems to know. There is also no card index with potential ministers, although it cannot be ruled out that new names will emerge from the shadows as PVV members, now that it appears that that party is no longer so toxic for many.

Clarity

In any case, Wilders will have to quickly provide clarity to his most logical coalition partners in order to win them over. The omens for him are favorable. BBB is already over, the VVD is preparing for a formation attempt by emphasizing the magnitude of Wilders’ victory and the rejection of the PVV by the New Social Contract has been in question since election day.

To really persuade them, Wilders will do even more effort in the near future to highlight his qualities as a coalition partner. He will, just like in the campaign, show his willingness to make compromises. Traditionally, the election winner humbly enters the formation to bring others to the table. Wilders never had such a role.

The election winner will also have to make it credible that he has control over his faction, which has exploded in size: that the PVV will not sign an agreement and then walk away or disintegrate.

Humbly entering the formation, Geert Wilders has never had such a role

It is not an easy task. But Wilders is very keen to play up his position of power. “We are waving from the boat to the sour left that is trying to make a powerless fist,” he said during his short-lived period in the vicinity of power, as a tolerating partner of VVD and CDA in Rutte 1. That cabinet, formed in 2010, kept it a year and a half full.

The experience with this is instructive. Wilders then abandoned his only “breaking point” from the campaign, no increase in the retirement age, a day after the elections. He did obtain other wishes, stricter welfare rules, in addition to the maintenance of some social services.

As a tolerating partner, Wilders played his role effectively. The PVV did not provide any ministers, but Wilders was present everywhere. He negotiated the coalition agreement and interim cuts, spoke weekly with Prime Minister Mark Rutte and Deputy Prime Minister Maxime Verhagen (CDA). His group voted loyally and kept to the agreements.

This close collaboration did not prevent Wilders from waging opposition from the heart of the cabinet. These were the years of the dodger Geert Wilders, who signed for cuts that also affected his supporters, but also the years of faction leader Geert Wilders who said: “Act normally, man!” ranted through the plenary chamber to the Prime Minister.

After the failed adventure of Rutte 1, there are VVD members, NSC members (certainly among former CDA members) and even BBB members where the resentment against Wilders still runs deep. Ultimately, that cabinet collapsed because Wilders did not want to sign for additional cuts again. Rutte would carry it on to him for years to come.

If the VVD already had the idea then that the PVV was very powerful from the tolerating chair, that feeling will be even greater now. It is one thing for the right-wing parties to ‘encapsulate’ the PVV, as a junior partner in a large cabinet. A colossal PVV at the helm of the cabinet is a completely different story, and the question is whether other parties still feel that they can tame the party in a coalition.